Complete CRIS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
CRIS DCF Analysis
CRIS (Curis, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.2M | $10.0M | $10.9M | $11.1M | $11.3M | $11.5M | $11.7M | $11.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -1.4% | 8.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| EBIT | $-53.0M | $-48.3M | $-44.5M | $556.5K | $566.7K | $576.0K | $584.6K | $592.4K |
| EBIT Margin % | -521.7% | -482.2% | -408.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-39.8M | $-36.2M | $-33.4M | $417.4K | $425.0K | $432.0K | $438.4K | $444.3K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -391.3% | -361.7% | -306.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $416.0K | $0 | $0 | $230.2K | $222.7K | $215.1K | $207.3K | $199.6K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Depreciation | $233.0K | $255.0K | $187.0K | $243.1K | $247.5K | $251.6K | $255.3K | $258.7K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-49.6M | $-29.0M | $-40.0M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -487.9% | -289.6% | -367.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $9.6M | $-7.0M | $6.8M | $430.2K | $449.8K | $468.6K | $486.4K | $503.4K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -172.3% | 197.8% | -93.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 94.8% | -69.5% | 62.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.843 | 0.710 | 0.598 | 0.504 | 0.425 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $362.5K | $319.3K | $280.2K | $245.1K | $213.7K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $362.5K | $681.8K | $962.0K | $1.2M | $1.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 3.67 |
| Cost of Equity | 20.3% |
| Total Debt | $3.0M |
| Market Cap | $25.2M |
| Total Capital | $28.1M |
| Debt Weighting | 10.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 89.5% |
| WACC | 18.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $503.4K |
| Terminal Value | $3.2M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.4M |
| Net Debt | $-17.0M |
| Equity Value | $19.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $3 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +30.7% |
Valuation Summary
$3.14
Implied Price
$2.40
Current Price
+30.7%
Upside/Downside
18.7%
WACC
CRIS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-0.42
-117.6%
Peer Median: 0.1x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$2.41
+0.0%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CRIS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CRIS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.5x | 0.1x | 0.1x | -669.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.2x | 2.2x | 1.5x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 23.0x | |
| $0.03B | 206.2x | 143.3x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 41.1x | |
| $0.02B | 0.1x | 0.0x | 0.7x |