Complete MEC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
MEC DCF Analysis
MEC (Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $539.4M | $588.4M | $581.6M | $632.2M | $681.7M | $729.8M | $776.0M | $820.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 9.1% | -1.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% |
| EBIT | $25.8M | $20.2M | $44.6M | $33.4M | $36.7M | $40.1M | $43.4M | $46.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 4.8% | 3.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| Tax Rate % | 16.4% | 11.7% | 22.6% | 20.1% | 20.6% | 21.1% | 21.6% | 22.1% |
| NOPAT | $21.6M | $17.8M | $34.5M | $26.7M | $29.2M | $31.6M | $34.0M | $36.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Capex | $58.6M | $16.6M | $12.1M | $33.6M | $34.4M | $35.0M | $35.4M | $35.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 10.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Depreciation | $29.3M | $35.1M | $37.6M | $37.6M | $40.6M | $43.4M | $46.2M | $48.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-16.3M | $24.1M | $-14.6M | $3.4M | $2.9M | $2.5M | $2.1M | $1.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -3.0% | 4.1% | -2.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $8.6M | $12.3M | $74.5M | $27.4M | $32.4M | $37.5M | $42.7M | $47.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 42.6% | 508.2% | -63.3% | 18.5% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 12.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 1.6% | 2.1% | 12.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.851 | 0.784 | 0.724 | 0.667 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $25.2M | $27.6M | $29.4M | $30.9M | $32.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $25.2M | $52.8M | $82.2M | $113.1M | $145.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 20.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.16 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.3% |
| Total Debt | $110.1M |
| Market Cap | $326.7M |
| Total Capital | $436.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 25.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 74.8% |
| WACC | 8.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $47.9M |
| Terminal Value | $828.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $552.6M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $145.1M |
| Net Debt | $109.8M |
| Equity Value | $587.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 21.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $28 |
| Current Share Price | $16 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +75.6% |
Valuation Summary
$28.03
Implied Price
$15.96
Current Price
+75.6%
Upside/Downside
8.4%
WACC
MEC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$21.02
+31.7%
Peer Median: 19.2x
EV/EBITDA
$25.23
+58.0%
Peer Median: 9.0x
P/S Ratio
$22.62
+41.7%
Peer Median: 0.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MEC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MEC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.6x | 19.2x | 25.3x | -24.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6x | 9.0x | 13.5x | -15.4% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.6x | 0.8x | 1.8x | -29.4% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.44B | 47.3x | 9.0x | 0.4x | |
| $0.54B | 59.9x | 31.5x | 2.7x | |
| $0.33B | 19.2x | 13.3x | 3.3x | |
| $0.23B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 51.8x | |
| $0.33B | 14.6x | 7.6x | 0.6x | |
| $0.33B | 15.6x | 6.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.31B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 51.6x | |
| $0.25B | 8.1x | 7.8x | 0.2x | |
| $0.28B | 10.7x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $89.31B | 26.9x | 18.6x | 4.5x |
MEC Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.10 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $12.00 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$17.21
Intrinsic Value
$15.96
Current Price
+7.8%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.10 = 24.66
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
24.66 × 12.00 = 296.07
Step 3: Take square root
√296.07 = 17.21
Graham Number Result:
$17.21
MEC Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.10 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.10
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$26.86
Intrinsic Value
$15.96
Current Price
+68.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
MEC Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.10
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.10 × 10.0% = $10.96
$10.96
Fair Value
$15.96
Current Price
-31.3%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
14.6x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
1.46
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Fairly Valued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
MEC Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$16.13
EPV per Share
$15.96
Current Price
+1.0%
Upside/Downside
7.7%
WACC: 7.7% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $16.13 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 75.3% |
| Debt Weight | 24.7% |
| WACC | 7.7% |