Complete PDYN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
PDYN DCF Analysis
PDYN (Palladyne AI Corp.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.6M | $6.1M | $7.8M | $9.7M | $12.1M | $14.6M | $17.5M | $20.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -57.8% | 26.7% | 25.0% | 23.9% | 21.5% | 19.3% | 17.4% |
| EBIT | $-177.0M | $-83.0M | $-26.9M | $486.6K | $602.7K | $732.1K | $873.5K | $1.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | -1215.2% | -1350.6% | -345.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-132.8M | $-62.3M | $-20.2M | $365.0K | $452.0K | $549.1K | $655.1K | $769.1K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -911.4% | -1013.0% | -259.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $1.5M | $782.0K | $265.0K | $904.9K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 10.3% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% |
| Depreciation | $3.6M | $4.4M | $825.0K | $3.5M | $4.3M | $5.2M | $6.2M | $7.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 24.7% | 71.2% | 10.6% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 35.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-103.6M | $-82.0M | $1.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -711.1% | -1333.6% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-27.1M | $23.3M | $-21.3M | $2.9M | $3.7M | $4.5M | $5.5M | $6.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 186.0% | -191.5% | 113.7% | 25.8% | 23.2% | 20.9% | 18.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -185.9% | 379.0% | -273.9% | 29.9% | 30.4% | 30.8% | 31.3% | 31.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.832 | 0.692 | 0.575 | 0.478 | 0.398 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $2.4M | $2.5M | $2.6M | $2.6M | $2.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $2.4M | $5.0M | $7.6M | $10.2M | $12.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 3.80 |
| Cost of Equity | 20.8% |
| Total Debt | $11.0M |
| Market Cap | $323.2M |
| Total Capital | $334.2M |
| Debt Weighting | 3.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.7% |
| WACC | 20.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $6.5M |
| Terminal Value | $37.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $14.9M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $12.8M |
| Net Debt | $-20.2M |
| Equity Value | $47.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 26.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $9 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -80.3% |
Valuation Summary
$1.79
Implied Price
$9.05
Current Price
-80.3%
Upside/Downside
20.2%
WACC
PDYN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-16.10
-277.9%
Peer Median: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 7.9x
P/S Ratio
$0.14
-98.4%
Peer Median: 0.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PDYN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PDYN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -8.8x | 15.6x | 16.0x | -156.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 7.9x | 10.9x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 53.4x | 0.8x | 1.7x | 6312.3% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.34B | 19.8x | 13.8x | 3.4x | |
| $0.23B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 53.0x | |
| $0.33B | 14.8x | 7.7x | 0.6x | |
| $0.33B | 15.6x | 6.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.32B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 53.4x | |
| $0.25B | 8.2x | 7.9x | 0.2x | |
| $0.28B | 10.6x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $89.51B | 27.0x | 18.6x | 4.5x |