Complete GHM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
GHM DCF Analysis
GHM (Graham Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2021 (Historical) | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Projected) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $122.8M | $43.0M | $185.5M | $231.9M | $289.9M | $362.4M | $453.0M | $566.2M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -65.0% | 331.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-11.3M | $-232.0K | $6.9M | $11.6M | $14.5M | $18.1M | $22.6M | $28.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -9.2% | -0.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 18.3% | 22.9% | 23.1% | 23.3% | 23.5% | 23.8% |
| NOPAT | $-8.5M | $-174.0K | $5.7M | $8.9M | $11.1M | $13.9M | $17.3M | $21.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -6.9% | -0.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $2.3M | $3.7M | $9.2M | $9.5M | $11.3M | $13.4M | $15.9M | $18.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.9% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| Depreciation | $5.6M | $6.0M | $5.4M | $16.5M | $20.7M | $25.9M | $32.3M | $40.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.6% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-48.9M | $-3.9M | $-15.8M | $-10.6M | $-10.6M | $-10.6M | $-10.6M | $-10.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -39.8% | -9.0% | -8.5% | -4.6% | -3.7% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -1.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $43.6M | $6.0M | $17.7M | $26.6M | $31.2M | $37.0M | $44.4M | $53.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -86.4% | 196.4% | 50.8% | 17.1% | 18.6% | 19.9% | 21.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 35.5% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.927 | 0.859 | 0.795 | 0.737 | 0.683 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $24.7M | $26.8M | $29.4M | $32.7M | $36.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $24.7M | $51.4M | $80.9M | $113.6M | $150.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 22.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.83 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.0% |
| Total Debt | $7.8M |
| Market Cap | $567.3M |
| Total Capital | $575.1M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.6% |
| WACC | 7.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $53.7M |
| Terminal Value | $1.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $693.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $150.3M |
| Net Debt | $-9.2M |
| Equity Value | $852.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 10.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $79 |
| Current Share Price | $52 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +51.8% |
Valuation Summary
$78.64
Implied Price
$51.81
Current Price
+51.8%
Upside/Downside
7.9%
WACC
GHM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$27.37
-47.2%
Peer Median: 33.0x
EV/EBITDA
$29.00
-44.0%
Peer Median: 18.7x
P/S Ratio
$35.39
-31.7%
Peer Median: 1.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GHM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GHM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 62.4x | 33.0x | 35.0x | 89.3% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.9x | 18.7x | 16.4x | 75.8% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.8x | 1.9x | 2.3x | 46.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.97B | 66.7x | 18.9x | 1.9x | |
| $0.98B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.7x | |
| $0.74B | 7.4x | 4.6x | 0.2x | |
| $0.70B | 33.0x | 25.1x | 5.0x | |
| $0.45B | 48.2x | 9.1x | 0.5x | |
| $0.57B | 62.4x | 32.9x | 2.8x | |
| $0.35B | 20.2x | 14.1x | 3.5x | |
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 48.9x | |
| $0.33B | 14.9x | 7.7x | 0.6x | |
| $89.79B | 27.1x | 18.7x | 4.5x |
GHM Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.83 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $9.73 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$13.48
Intrinsic Value
$51.81
Current Price
-74.0%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.83 = 18.67
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
18.67 × 9.73 = 181.75
Step 3: Take square root
√181.75 = 13.48
Graham Number Result:
$13.48
GHM Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.83 × (8.5 + 2 × 20.5%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.83
Latest 10-K • 2024-03-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y20.5%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$41.09
Intrinsic Value
$51.81
Current Price
-20.7%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 20.5%
GHM Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.83
Latest 10-K • 2024-03-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y20.5%
3-year earnings growth
20.5%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.83 × 20.5% = $17.02
$17.02
Fair Value
$51.81
Current Price
-67.2%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
62.4x
Current P/E
20.5%
Growth Rate
3.04
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).