Complete LILA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
LILA DCF Analysis
LILA (Liberty Latin America Ltd.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.8B | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -6.3% | -1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| EBIT | $663.8M | $517.7M | $-48.3M | $360.8M | $366.7M | $372.5M | $378.2M | $383.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | 13.8% | 11.5% | -1.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $497.9M | $388.3M | $-36.2M | $270.6M | $275.0M | $279.4M | $283.7M | $287.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 10.3% | 8.6% | -0.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Capex | $660.1M | $585.0M | $540.4M | $619.3M | $590.7M | $563.2M | $536.7M | $511.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 13.7% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 11.3% |
| Depreciation | $910.7M | $1.0B | $968.3M | $939.9M | $943.7M | $947.0M | $950.1M | $952.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 18.9% | 22.4% | 21.7% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-234.7M | $-37.4M | $-192.0M | $-32.8M | $-26.3M | $-21.1M | $-17.0M | $-13.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -4.9% | -0.8% | -4.3% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $983.1M | $849.0M | $583.7M | $624.0M | $654.3M | $684.4M | $714.0M | $743.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -13.6% | -31.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 20.4% | 18.8% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 14.6% | 15.2% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.944 | 0.892 | 0.842 | 0.795 | 0.751 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $589.2M | $583.5M | $576.3M | $567.8M | $558.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $589.2M | $1.2B | $1.7B | $2.3B | $2.9B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.94 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.5% |
| Total Debt | $8.2B |
| Market Cap | $1.0B |
| Total Capital | $9.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 89.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 10.9% |
| WACC | 5.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $743.0M |
| Terminal Value | $22.4B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $16.8B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $2.9B |
| Net Debt | $7.5B |
| Equity Value | $12.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 197.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $62 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1159.8% |
Valuation Summary
$61.98
Implied Price
$4.92
Current Price
+1159.8%
Upside/Downside
5.9%
WACC
LILA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$-91.23
-1954.2%
Peer Median: 22.7x
EV/EBITDA
$54.45
+1006.7%
Peer Median: 23.1x
P/S Ratio
$48.53
+886.5%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LILA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LILA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.2x | 22.7x | 13.4x | -105.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.7x | 23.1x | 19.2x | -23.3% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.2x | 2.2x | 2.6x | -89.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.53B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1624.0x | |
| $3.98B | 4.1x | 5.4x | 0.3x | |
| $2.74B | 22.7x | 10.5x | 3.3x | |
| $2.27B | 0.0x | 23.4x | 2.2x | |
| $2.31B | 0.0x | 35.2x | 9.1x | |
| $1.00B | 0.0x | 17.7x | 0.2x | |
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 84.2x | |
| $0.42B | 0.0x | 23.1x | 0.6x |