Complete ATEX Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ATEX DCF Analysis
ATEX (Anterix Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1M | $1.9M | $4.2M | $5.2M | $6.5M | $8.2M | $10.2M | $12.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 77.0% | 118.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-48.0M | $-54.9M | $-10.1M | $261.9K | $327.4K | $409.3K | $511.6K | $639.5K |
| EBIT Margin % | -4423.4% | -2858.3% | -241.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-36.0M | $-41.1M | $-7.6M | $196.5K | $245.6K | $307.0K | $383.7K | $479.6K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -3317.6% | -2143.7% | -181.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $27.4M | $27.1M | $17.3M | $157.2K | $196.5K | $245.6K | $307.0K | $383.7K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2528.7% | 1413.8% | 413.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $1.4M | $1.4M | $844.0K | $4.0M | $5.0M | $6.2M | $7.8M | $9.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 133.8% | 74.0% | 20.1% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-6.3M | $-78.6M | $27.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -581.2% | -4094.6% | 656.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-55.6M | $11.7M | $-51.6M | $4.0M | $5.0M | $6.3M | $7.8M | $9.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 121.1% | -539.8% | 107.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -5131.3% | 611.2% | -1230.9% | 76.7% | 76.7% | 76.7% | 76.7% | 76.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.849 | 0.783 | 0.721 | 0.665 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $3.7M | $4.3M | $4.9M | $5.7M | $6.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $3.7M | $8.0M | $12.9M | $18.6M | $25.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.5% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.94 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.5% |
| Total Debt | $5.3M |
| Market Cap | $500.7M |
| Total Capital | $506.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.0% |
| WACC | 8.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $9.8M |
| Terminal Value | $167.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $111.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $25.1M |
| Net Debt | $-55.3M |
| Equity Value | $191.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 18.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $10 |
| Current Share Price | $27 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -62.1% |
Valuation Summary
$10.22
Implied Price
$26.94
Current Price
-62.1%
Upside/Downside
8.5%
WACC
ATEX Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$-37.29
-238.4%
Peer Median: 23.4x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.5x
P/S Ratio
$0.72
-97.3%
Peer Median: 2.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ATEX's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ATEX Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -16.9x | 23.4x | 13.7x | -172.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.5x | 19.6x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 84.8x | 2.3x | 2.7x | 3616.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.18B | 4.1x | 5.4x | 0.3x | |
| $2.82B | 23.4x | 10.7x | 3.3x | |
| $2.32B | 0.0x | 23.7x | 2.3x | |
| $2.40B | 0.0x | 36.5x | 9.4x | |
| $1.01B | 0.0x | 17.7x | 0.2x | |
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 84.8x | |
| $0.43B | 0.0x | 23.5x | 0.6x | |
| $8.32B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1794.6x |