Complete ASTS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ASTS DCF Analysis
ASTS (AST SpaceMobile, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.8M | $0 | $4.4M | $4.0M | $3.6M | $3.2M | $2.9M | $2.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -100.0% | Infinity% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-164.9M | $-222.4M | $-242.8M | $198.8K | $178.9K | $161.0K | $144.9K | $130.4K |
| EBIT Margin % | -1192.6% | 0.0% | -5494.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-123.7M | $-166.8M | $-182.1M | $149.1K | $134.2K | $120.8K | $108.7K | $97.8K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -894.5% | -Infinity% | -4121.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $57.3M | $118.8M | $174.1M | $119.3K | $107.4K | $96.6K | $87.0K | $78.3K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 414.4% | Infinity% | 3941.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $4.7M | $54.5M | $63.3M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| D&A / Revenue % | 34.1% | Infinity% | 1433.7% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Change in NWC | $-73.9M | $-179.9M | $463.6M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -534.6% | -Infinity% | 10494.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-102.3M | $-51.3M | $-756.5M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 49.9% | -1375.8% | Infinity% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -740.1% | -Infinity% | -17123.2% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.884 | 0.782 | 0.692 | 0.612 | 0.541 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.04 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.3% |
| Total Debt | $173.0M |
| Market Cap | $7.6B |
| Total Capital | $7.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 2.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 97.8% |
| WACC | 13.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $InfinityB |
| Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| PV of Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $InfinityB |
| Net Debt | $-392.0M |
| Equity Value | $InfinityB |
| Shares Outstanding | 154.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $InfinityB |
| Current Share Price | $23 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +Infinity% |
Valuation Summary
$Infinity
Implied Price
$23.14
Current Price
+Infinity%
Upside/Downside
13.1%
WACC
ASTS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-33.35
-244.1%
Peer Median: 22.9x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.1x
P/S Ratio
$0.03
-99.9%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ASTS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ASTS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -15.9x | 22.9x | 13.5x | -169.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.1x | 19.3x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1638.4x | 2.2x | 2.6x | 73247.9% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.60B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1638.4x | |
| $4.03B | 4.1x | 5.4x | 0.3x | |
| $2.77B | 22.9x | 10.6x | 3.3x | |
| $2.27B | 0.0x | 23.4x | 2.2x | |
| $2.35B | 0.0x | 35.7x | 9.2x | |
| $1.01B | 0.0x | 17.7x | 0.2x | |
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 84.3x | |
| $0.42B | 0.0x | 23.1x | 0.6x |