Complete GSAT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
GSAT DCF Analysis
GSAT (Globalstar, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $148.5M | $223.8M | $250.3M | $309.2M | $374.7M | $446.1M | $522.6M | $603.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 50.7% | 11.9% | 23.5% | 21.2% | 19.1% | 17.1% | 15.4% |
| EBIT | $118.1M | $-165.0K | $-949.0K | $81.5M | $99.2M | $118.5M | $139.4M | $161.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | 79.5% | -0.1% | -0.4% | 26.4% | 26.5% | 26.6% | 26.7% | 26.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $88.6M | $-123.8K | $-711.8K | $61.1M | $74.4M | $88.9M | $104.5M | $121.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 59.7% | -0.1% | -0.3% | 19.8% | 19.8% | 19.9% | 20.0% | 20.1% |
| Capex | $40.0M | $175.6M | $118.9M | $17.4M | $20.0M | $22.6M | $25.2M | $27.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 26.9% | 78.5% | 47.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% |
| Depreciation | $93.9M | $88.2M | $89.0M | $142.4M | $172.6M | $205.5M | $240.7M | $277.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 63.2% | 39.4% | 35.5% | 46.1% | 46.1% | 46.1% | 46.1% | 46.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-123.1M | $82.6M | $339.3M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -82.9% | 36.9% | 135.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $265.7M | $-170.1M | $-370.0M | $186.2M | $227.0M | $271.7M | $320.0M | $371.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -164.0% | -117.5% | 150.3% | 21.9% | 19.7% | 17.8% | 16.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 178.9% | -76.0% | -147.8% | 60.2% | 60.6% | 60.9% | 61.2% | 61.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.930 | 0.864 | 0.804 | 0.747 | 0.695 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $173.1M | $196.2M | $218.4M | $239.2M | $258.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $173.1M | $369.3M | $587.7M | $826.9M | $1.1B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.5% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.86 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.2% |
| Total Debt | $541.9M |
| Market Cap | $2.4B |
| Total Capital | $2.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 18.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 81.6% |
| WACC | 7.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $371.4M |
| Terminal Value | $7.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $5.2B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.1B |
| Net Debt | $150.8M |
| Equity Value | $6.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 125.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $49 |
| Current Share Price | $19 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +158.8% |
Valuation Summary
$48.99
Implied Price
$18.93
Current Price
+158.8%
Upside/Downside
7.6%
WACC
GSAT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$-13.40
-170.8%
Peer Median: 23.4x
EV/EBITDA
$12.95
-31.6%
Peer Median: 23.5x
P/S Ratio
$4.58
-75.8%
Peer Median: 2.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GSAT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GSAT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -33.0x | 23.4x | 13.7x | -241.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.5x | 23.5x | 19.6x | 55.4% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 9.4x | 2.3x | 2.7x | 313.5% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8.32B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1794.6x | |
| $4.18B | 4.1x | 5.4x | 0.3x | |
| $2.82B | 23.4x | 10.7x | 3.3x | |
| $2.32B | 0.0x | 23.7x | 2.3x | |
| $2.40B | 0.0x | 36.5x | 9.4x | |
| $1.01B | 0.0x | 17.7x | 0.2x | |
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 84.8x | |
| $0.43B | 0.0x | 23.5x | 0.6x |