Complete JBTM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
JBTM DCF Analysis
JBTM (JBT Marel Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| EBIT | $132.6M | $164.7M | $118.4M | $148.7M | $155.2M | $161.4M | $167.4M | $173.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | 8.3% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 13.5% | 15.3% | 11.2% | 17.6% | 18.3% | 19.1% | 19.8% | 20.5% |
| NOPAT | $114.7M | $139.4M | $105.1M | $122.6M | $126.7M | $130.6M | $134.2M | $137.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Capex | $84.6M | $55.1M | $37.9M | $58.6M | $57.4M | $56.1M | $54.6M | $53.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Depreciation | $76.2M | $91.3M | $89.4M | $91.6M | $94.5M | $97.1M | $99.6M | $101.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Change in NWC | $133.7M | $313.3M | $712.0M | $54.1M | $44.6M | $36.7M | $30.1M | $24.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 8.4% | 18.8% | 41.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-27.4M | $-137.7M | $-555.4M | $101.5M | $119.2M | $135.0M | $149.1M | $161.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -402.5% | -303.4% | 118.3% | 17.4% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 8.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1.7% | -8.3% | -32.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.918 | 0.843 | 0.774 | 0.711 | 0.652 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $93.2M | $100.5M | $104.5M | $106.0M | $105.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $93.2M | $193.7M | $298.2M | $404.2M | $509.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.2% |
| Tax Rate | 17.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.25 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | $1.3B |
| Market Cap | $6.4B |
| Total Capital | $7.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 16.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 83.7% |
| WACC | 8.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $161.7M |
| Terminal Value | $2.6B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $509.7M |
| Net Debt | $23.7M |
| Equity Value | $2.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 32.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $67 |
| Current Share Price | $123 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -45.3% |
Valuation Summary
$67.45
Implied Price
$123.34
Current Price
-45.3%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC
JBTM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-59.76
-148.5%
Peer Median: 28.0x
EV/EBITDA
$38.95
-68.4%
Peer Median: 17.6x
P/S Ratio
$116.06
-5.9%
Peer Median: 2.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for JBTM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | JBTM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -57.8x | 28.0x | 26.7x | -306.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 56.0x | 17.6x | 17.0x | 217.8% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.9x | 2.8x | 2.9x | 6.3% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.93B | 0.4x | 12.5x | 2.1x | |
| $7.56B | 27.7x | 17.6x | 2.8x | |
| $7.33B | 28.7x | 11.8x | 1.7x | |
| $7.94B | 39.6x | 21.9x | 4.0x | |
| $6.84B | 24.6x | 14.0x | 1.5x | |
| $6.41B | 0.0x | 56.0x | 2.9x | |
| $6.02B | 28.0x | 13.1x | 1.8x | |
| $10.99B | 33.2x | 25.7x | 5.2x | |
| $5.33B | 16.4x | 9.6x | 1.2x | |
| $4.92B | 41.7x | 24.5x | 4.6x | |
| $90.01B | 27.1x | 18.7x | 4.5x |
JBTM Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$34.52
EPV per Share
$123.34
Current Price
-72.0%
Upside/Downside
7.7%
WACC: 7.7% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.1B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $1.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $34.52 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 76.0% |
| Debt Weight | 24.0% |
| WACC | 7.7% |