Complete GTLS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
GTLS DCF Analysis
GTLS (Chart Industries, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | $3.4B | $4.2B | $5.2B | $6.5B | $8.1B | $10.2B | $12.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 107.9% | 24.1% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $151.5M | $390.7M | $647.5M | $634.7M | $799.9M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.6B |
| EBIT Margin % | 9.4% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 16.1% | 5.2% | 24.7% | 16.6% | 17.4% | 18.3% | 19.1% | 19.9% |
| NOPAT | $127.1M | $370.5M | $487.7M | $529.6M | $660.6M | $824.0M | $1.0B | $1.3B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 7.9% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Capex | $74.2M | $135.6M | $120.8M | $195.2M | $231.8M | $275.3M | $326.9M | $388.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| Depreciation | $81.9M | $231.1M | $269.9M | $320.0M | $400.0M | $500.0M | $625.0M | $781.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Change in NWC | $2.4B | $-2.3B | $327.4M | $256.7M | $256.7M | $256.7M | $256.7M | $256.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 151.9% | -67.4% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-2.3B | $2.7B | $309.4M | $397.7M | $572.1M | $792.0M | $1.1B | $1.4B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 217.8% | -88.7% | 28.5% | 43.9% | 38.4% | 35.0% | 32.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -143.6% | 81.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.913 | 0.833 | 0.761 | 0.694 | 0.634 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $363.0M | $476.8M | $602.5M | $742.4M | $898.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $363.0M | $839.8M | $1.4B | $2.2B | $3.1B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.3% |
| Tax Rate | 16.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.70 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.7% |
| Total Debt | $3.6B |
| Market Cap | $7.4B |
| Total Capital | $11.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 33.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 67.0% |
| WACC | 9.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.4B |
| Terminal Value | $20.6B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $13.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $3.1B |
| Net Debt | $3.3B |
| Equity Value | $12.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 46.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $275 |
| Current Share Price | $165 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +67.0% |
Valuation Summary
$274.85
Implied Price
$164.56
Current Price
+67.0%
Upside/Downside
9.5%
WACC
GTLS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$152.71
-7.2%
Peer Median: 26.9x
EV/EBITDA
$283.97
+72.6%
Peer Median: 14.1x
P/S Ratio
$208.95
+27.0%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GTLS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GTLS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.0x | 26.9x | 23.7x | 7.8% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9x | 14.1x | 14.8x | -15.9% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 1.8x | 2.2x | 2.6x | -21.2% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8.74B | 14.4x | 8.7x | 2.2x | |
| $8.05B | 20.1x | 12.8x | 2.2x | |
| $8.20B | 28.1x | 18.0x | 3.7x | |
| $7.65B | 0.3x | 12.2x | 2.0x | |
| $7.29B | 26.7x | 17.1x | 2.7x | |
| $7.40B | 29.0x | 11.9x | 1.8x | |
| $7.76B | 38.7x | 21.4x | 3.9x | |
| $6.89B | 24.8x | 14.1x | 1.5x | |
| $6.23B | 0.0x | 54.4x | 2.9x | |
| $5.94B | 27.6x | 13.0x | 1.8x | |
| $89.15B | 26.9x | 18.6x | 4.5x |
GTLS Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $5.68 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $60.61 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$88.01
Intrinsic Value
$164.56
Current Price
-46.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 5.68 = 127.78
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
127.78 × 60.61 = 7745.23
Step 3: Take square root
√7745.23 = 88.01
Graham Number Result:
$88.01
GTLS Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
5.68 × (8.5 + 2 × 39.8%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$5.68
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y39.8%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y27.1%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$500.86
Intrinsic Value
$164.56
Current Price
+204.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 39.8%
GTLS Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$5.68
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y39.8%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y27.1%
5-year earnings growth
39.8%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$5.68 × 39.8% = $226.29
$226.29
Fair Value
$164.56
Current Price
+37.5%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
29.0x
Current P/E
39.8%
Growth Rate
0.73
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
GTLS Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$64.45
EPV per Share
$164.56
Current Price
-60.8%
Upside/Downside
7.3%
WACC: 7.3% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $3.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $3.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $64.45 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 67.8% |
| Debt Weight | 32.2% |
| WACC | 7.3% |