Complete MIDD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
MIDD DCF Analysis
MIDD (The Middleby Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | $4.0B | $3.9B | $4.1B | $4.3B | $4.6B | $4.8B | $5.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 0.1% | -4.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% |
| EBIT | $639.6M | $634.9M | $656.2M | $665.5M | $706.8M | $746.7M | $785.1M | $821.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | 15.9% | 15.7% | 16.9% | 16.2% | 16.3% | 16.4% | 16.5% | 16.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 22.7% | 22.8% | 25.8% | 23.0% | 23.2% | 23.4% | 23.6% | 23.8% |
| NOPAT | $494.7M | $490.0M | $487.0M | $512.3M | $542.7M | $571.9M | $599.7M | $626.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 12.3% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| Capex | $69.5M | $87.0M | $49.3M | $69.2M | $69.4M | $69.2M | $68.7M | $67.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Depreciation | $138.1M | $132.6M | $127.2M | $137.0M | $144.6M | $151.9M | $158.7M | $165.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Change in NWC | $225.5M | $97.1M | $386.0M | $203.9M | $172.2M | $144.7M | $120.9M | $100.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 5.6% | 2.4% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $337.8M | $438.6M | $178.9M | $376.2M | $445.8M | $509.9M | $568.8M | $622.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 29.9% | -59.2% | 110.3% | 18.5% | 14.4% | 11.5% | 9.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 8.4% | 10.9% | 4.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.912 | 0.831 | 0.758 | 0.691 | 0.630 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $343.0M | $370.6M | $386.5M | $393.1M | $392.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $343.0M | $713.6M | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.9B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.3% |
| Tax Rate | 23.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.26% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.60 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.2% |
| Total Debt | $2.4B |
| Market Cap | $7.7B |
| Total Capital | $10.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 23.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 76.1% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $622.7M |
| Terminal Value | $8.9B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $5.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.9B |
| Net Debt | $1.7B |
| Equity Value | $5.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 54.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $106 |
| Current Share Price | $144 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -26.4% |
Valuation Summary
$106.16
Implied Price
$144.16
Current Price
-26.4%
Upside/Downside
9.7%
WACC
MIDD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$11.34K
+7768.8%
Peer Median: 26.8x
EV/EBITDA
$206.13
+43.0%
Peer Median: 14.3x
P/S Ratio
$162.43
+12.7%
Peer Median: 2.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MIDD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MIDD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.3x | 26.8x | 24.7x | -98.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.2x | 14.3x | 15.7x | -14.3% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 2.0x | 2.3x | 2.8x | -11.3% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10.40B | 28.6x | 11.8x | 0.7x | |
| $10.81B | 32.6x | 25.3x | 5.1x | |
| $8.83B | 14.6x | 8.8x | 2.3x | |
| $8.08B | 20.1x | 12.8x | 2.2x | |
| $8.20B | 28.1x | 18.0x | 3.7x | |
| $7.71B | 0.3x | 12.2x | 2.0x | |
| $7.28B | 26.7x | 17.0x | 2.7x | |
| $7.53B | 29.5x | 12.0x | 1.8x | |
| $7.75B | 38.7x | 21.4x | 3.9x | |
| $6.98B | 25.1x | 14.3x | 1.5x | |
| $88.95B | 26.8x | 18.5x | 4.5x |
MIDD Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $422.80 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $67.12 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$799.06
Intrinsic Value
$144.16
Current Price
+454.3%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 422.80 = 9513.03
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
9513.03 × 67.12 = 638501.09
Step 3: Take square root
√638501.09 = 799.06
Graham Number Result:
$799.06
MIDD Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
422.80 × (8.5 + 2 × 4.7%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$422.80
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-28T00:00:00
Historical 5Y4.7%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$7581.24
Intrinsic Value
$144.16
Current Price
+5159.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 4.7%
MIDD Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$422.80
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-28T00:00:00
Historical 5Y4.7%
5-year earnings growth
4.7%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$422.80 × 4.7% = $1993.71
$1993.71
Fair Value
$144.16
Current Price
+1283.0%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
0.3x
Current P/E
4.7%
Growth Rate
0.07
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
MIDD Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.4 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.4 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$102.46
EPV per Share
$144.16
Current Price
-28.9%
Upside/Downside
7.7%
WACC: 7.7% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.4B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $5.6B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $5.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $102.46 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 76.3% |
| Debt Weight | 23.7% |
| WACC | 7.7% |