Complete SPXC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
SPXC DCF Analysis
SPXC (SPX Technologies, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 19.2% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.6% |
| EBIT | $51.0M | $221.9M | $308.3M | $244.0M | $282.0M | $321.7M | $362.8M | $404.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | 3.5% | 12.7% | 15.5% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 26.9% | 22.3% | 21.0% | 18.4% | 19.1% | 19.7% | 20.4% | 21.0% |
| NOPAT | $37.3M | $172.4M | $243.6M | $199.1M | $228.2M | $258.3M | $288.9M | $319.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.6% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Capex | $15.9M | $23.9M | $38.0M | $30.0M | $32.7M | $35.1M | $37.2M | $39.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Depreciation | $46.4M | $63.2M | $91.6M | $87.7M | $100.4M | $113.5M | $126.8M | $140.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Change in NWC | $-76.6M | $-78.9M | $57.6M | $-39.6M | $-36.2M | $-32.8M | $-29.3M | $-25.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -5.2% | -4.5% | 2.9% | -1.7% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $144.4M | $290.6M | $239.6M | $296.3M | $332.2M | $369.5M | $407.8M | $446.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 101.3% | -17.5% | 23.7% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 9.9% | 16.7% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 12.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.915 | 0.838 | 0.767 | 0.702 | 0.642 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $271.2M | $278.3M | $283.3M | $286.1M | $286.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $271.2M | $549.5M | $832.8M | $1.1B | $1.4B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.2% |
| Tax Rate | 18.4% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.23 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.6% |
| Total Debt | $614.7M |
| Market Cap | $7.9B |
| Total Capital | $8.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 7.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 92.8% |
| WACC | 9.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $446.7M |
| Terminal Value | $6.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $4.3B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.4B |
| Net Debt | $457.8M |
| Equity Value | $5.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 47.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $113 |
| Current Share Price | $170 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -33.8% |
Valuation Summary
$112.52
Implied Price
$169.92
Current Price
-33.8%
Upside/Downside
9.3%
WACC
SPXC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$121.80
-28.3%
Peer Median: 28.4x
EV/EBITDA
$146.39
-13.8%
Peer Median: 17.8x
P/S Ratio
$120.09
-29.3%
Peer Median: 2.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SPXC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SPXC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.6x | 28.4x | 32.4x | 39.5% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.9x | 17.8x | 17.0x | 22.8% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.0x | 2.8x | 3.0x | 41.5% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.20B | 23.9x | 15.0x | 2.1x | |
| $3.85B | 26.9x | 15.3x | 2.8x | |
| $4.13B | 49.0x | 17.8x | 3.9x | |
| $3.86B | 34.8x | 19.4x | 3.7x | |
| $3.23B | 53.6x | 22.9x | 2.8x | |
| $7.94B | 39.6x | 21.9x | 4.0x | |
| $2.18B | 23.7x | 16.5x | 3.6x | |
| $2.15B | 28.4x | 12.1x | 1.8x | |
| $1.97B | 32.5x | 18.4x | 2.6x | |
| $1.83B | 17.2x | 8.4x | 0.9x | |
| $90.01B | 27.1x | 18.7x | 4.5x |
SPXC Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $4.29 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $29.41 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$53.27
Intrinsic Value
$169.92
Current Price
-68.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 4.29 = 96.50
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
96.50 × 29.41 = 2837.71
Step 3: Take square root
√2837.71 = 53.27
Graham Number Result:
$53.27
SPXC Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
4.29 × (8.5 + 2 × 49.5%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$4.29
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y49.5%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y20.5%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$460.68
Intrinsic Value
$169.92
Current Price
+171.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 49.5%
SPXC Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$4.29
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y49.5%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y20.5%
5-year earnings growth
49.5%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$4.29 × 49.5% = $212.11
$212.11
Fair Value
$169.92
Current Price
+24.8%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
39.6x
Current P/E
49.5%
Growth Rate
0.80
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
SPXC Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$49.47
EPV per Share
$169.92
Current Price
-70.9%
Upside/Downside
8.6%
WACC: 8.6% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $49.47 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 92.9% |
| Debt Weight | 7.1% |
| WACC | 8.6% |