Complete IVDA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
IVDA DCF Analysis
IVDA (Iveda Solutions, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.5M | $6.5M | $6.0M | $7.5M | $9.4M | $11.8M | $14.7M | $18.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 45.4% | -7.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-3.3M | $-3.4M | $-4.1M | $376.3K | $470.4K | $588.0K | $734.9K | $918.7K |
| EBIT Margin % | -74.5% | -52.5% | -67.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-2.5M | $-2.6M | $-3.1M | $282.2K | $352.8K | $441.0K | $551.2K | $689.0K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -55.9% | -39.4% | -50.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $14.2K | $878.2K | $2.6K | $250.4K | $297.3K | $353.1K | $419.3K | $497.9K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.3% | 13.5% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| Depreciation | $17.8K | $19.8K | $31.8K | $30.9K | $38.6K | $48.2K | $60.3K | $75.4K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Change in NWC | $8.2M | $-3.0M | $-1.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 183.7% | -46.1% | -28.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-10.7M | $-423.1K | $-1.3M | $62.7K | $94.0K | $136.1K | $192.2K | $266.5K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 96.0% | -203.8% | 104.9% | 50.0% | 44.8% | 41.2% | 38.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -239.5% | -6.5% | -21.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.930 | 0.865 | 0.804 | 0.747 | 0.695 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $58.3K | $81.3K | $109.4K | $143.7K | $185.2K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $58.3K | $139.6K | $249.1K | $392.7K | $577.9K |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.79 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.8% |
| Total Debt | $925.2K |
| Market Cap | $6.7M |
| Total Capital | $7.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 12.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 87.9% |
| WACC | 7.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $266.5K |
| Terminal Value | $5.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $3.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $577.9K |
| Net Debt | $-1.7M |
| Equity Value | $6.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $3 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +14.5% |
Valuation Summary
$2.74
Implied Price
$2.40
Current Price
+14.5%
Upside/Downside
7.5%
WACC
IVDA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-47.46
-2081.6%
Peer Median: 36.4x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.6x
P/S Ratio
$4.39
+83.2%
Peer Median: 1.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for IVDA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | IVDA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.8x | 36.4x | 36.4x | -105.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.6x | 23.6x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.9x | 1.7x | 4.7x | -45.4% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.7x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $3499.31B | 36.4x | 23.6x | 13.0x |