Complete IDAI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
IDAI DCF Analysis
IDAI (T Stamp Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.4M | $4.6M | $3.1M | $2.9M | $2.8M | $2.7M | $2.6M | $2.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -15.3% | -32.4% | -4.4% | -3.9% | -3.6% | -3.2% | -2.9% |
| EBIT | $-12.1M | $-7.9M | $-9.4M | $147.4K | $141.5K | $136.5K | $132.1K | $128.3K |
| EBIT Margin % | -224.3% | -173.0% | -303.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-9.1M | $-5.9M | $-7.0M | $110.5K | $106.2K | $102.4K | $99.1K | $96.3K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -168.2% | -129.8% | -227.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $981.6K | $634.8K | $806.7K | $505.8K | $461.5K | $422.9K | $388.9K | $358.8K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 18.2% | 13.9% | 26.2% | 17.2% | 16.3% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 14.0% |
| Depreciation | $760.5K | $789.6K | $729.4K | $541.3K | $519.9K | $501.4K | $485.4K | $471.4K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 14.1% | 17.3% | 23.7% | 18.4% | 18.4% | 18.4% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-4.9M | $3.6M | $-1.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -91.7% | 78.0% | -48.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-4.3M | $-9.3M | $-5.6M | $146.0K | $164.5K | $180.9K | $195.6K | $208.9K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -114.6% | 39.7% | 102.6% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -80.6% | -204.4% | -182.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.949 | 0.901 | 0.855 | 0.811 | 0.770 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $138.6K | $148.2K | $154.7K | $158.7K | $160.8K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $138.6K | $286.8K | $441.4K | $600.1K | $760.9K |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.26 |
| Cost of Equity | 5.5% |
| Total Debt | $4.1M |
| Market Cap | $5.5M |
| Total Capital | $9.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 43.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 56.9% |
| WACC | 5.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $208.9K |
| Terminal Value | $7.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $5.7M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $760.9K |
| Net Debt | $1.3M |
| Equity Value | $5.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +112.0% |
Valuation Summary
$4.67
Implied Price
$2.20
Current Price
+112.0%
Upside/Downside
5.4%
WACC
IDAI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 4 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-150.94
-6960.7%
Peer Median: 36.5x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.7x
P/S Ratio
$2.20
+0.0%
Peer Median: 1.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for IDAI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | IDAI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.5x | 36.5x | 36.5x | -101.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.7x | 23.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.8x | 1.8x | 4.1x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.8x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $3510.28B | 36.5x | 23.7x | 13.0x |