Complete BKYI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BKYI DCF Analysis
BKYI (BIO-key International, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.0M | $7.8M | $6.9M | $7.9M | $8.9M | $10.0M | $11.0M | $12.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 10.5% | -10.6% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% |
| EBIT | $-9.7M | $-8.8M | $-4.0M | $396.2K | $447.5K | $499.5K | $551.8K | $603.8K |
| EBIT Margin % | -138.0% | -113.8% | -57.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-7.3M | $-6.6M | $-3.0M | $297.2K | $335.6K | $374.7K | $413.9K | $452.9K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -103.5% | -85.4% | -43.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $82.0K | $1.0K | $13.0K | $79.2K | $89.5K | $99.9K | $110.4K | $120.8K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $546.0K | $590.1K | $477.5K | $588.5K | $664.6K | $741.9K | $819.6K | $896.9K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-7.3M | $-5.3M | $-2.1M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -103.3% | -68.6% | -29.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $447.4K | $-713.6K | $-468.5K | $806.5K | $910.7K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -259.5% | 34.4% | 272.2% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 6.4% | -9.2% | -6.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.945 | 0.894 | 0.845 | 0.799 | 0.755 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $762.4K | $813.9K | $859.0K | $897.1K | $928.0K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $762.4K | $1.6M | $2.4M | $3.3M | $4.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.35 |
| Cost of Equity | 5.9% |
| Total Debt | $1.8M |
| Market Cap | $4.7M |
| Total Capital | $6.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 27.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 72.7% |
| WACC | 5.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.2M |
| Terminal Value | $38.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $29.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $4.3M |
| Net Debt | $1.3M |
| Equity Value | $31.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $16 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1804.6% |
Valuation Summary
$15.50
Implied Price
$0.81
Current Price
+1804.6%
Upside/Downside
5.8%
WACC
BKYI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 4 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-36.18
-4544.4%
Peer Median: 36.1x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.5x
P/S Ratio
$1.95
+139.3%
Peer Median: 1.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BKYI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BKYI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.8x | 36.1x | 36.1x | -102.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.5x | 23.5x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.7x | 1.8x | 4.1x | -58.2% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.8x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $3477.31B | 36.1x | 23.5x | 12.9x |