Complete INTZ Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
INTZ DCF Analysis
INTZ (Intrusion Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.5M | $5.6M | $5.8M | $5.5M | $5.3M | $5.1M | $4.9M | $4.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -25.5% | 2.9% | -4.8% | -4.3% | -3.9% | -3.5% | -3.2% |
| EBIT | $-16.3M | $-12.0M | $-8.4M | $274.7K | $262.8K | $252.5K | $243.6K | $235.9K |
| EBIT Margin % | -216.3% | -214.7% | -146.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-12.2M | $-9.0M | $-6.3M | $206.0K | $197.1K | $189.4K | $182.7K | $177.0K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -162.2% | -161.0% | -109.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $1.5M | $1.4M | $533.0K | $679.8K | $617.8K | $564.1K | $517.0K | $475.7K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 19.6% | 25.8% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.1% |
| Depreciation | $1.3M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 17.4% | 29.6% | 28.6% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-9.9M | $-5.3M | $15.0M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -131.8% | -94.4% | 259.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-2.5M | $-3.5M | $-20.2M | $908.5K | $901.7K | $896.2K | $892.0K | $888.8K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -43.6% | -472.8% | 104.5% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -32.6% | -62.9% | -350.1% | 16.5% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 18.3% | 18.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 1.015 | 1.030 | 1.045 | 1.061 | 1.076 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $922.0K | $928.6K | $936.6K | $946.0K | $956.6K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $922.0K | $1.9M | $2.8M | $3.7M | $4.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | -1.45 |
| Cost of Equity | -1.9% |
| Total Debt | $2.7M |
| Market Cap | $42.4M |
| Total Capital | $45.1M |
| Debt Weighting | 6.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.9% |
| WACC | -1.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $888.8K |
| Terminal Value | $-23.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $-24.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $4.7M |
| Net Debt | $-2.1M |
| Equity Value | $-18.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 5.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $-3 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -259.8% |
Valuation Summary
$-3.40
Implied Price
$2.13
Current Price
-259.8%
Upside/Downside
-1.5%
WACC
INTZ Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-15.46
-826.0%
Peer Median: 36.4x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.7x
P/S Ratio
$2.91
+36.6%
Peer Median: 9.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for INTZ's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | INTZ Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -5.0x | 36.4x | 36.4x | -113.8% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.7x | 23.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 6.6x | 9.0x | 7.4x | -26.8% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.10B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.0x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 69.3x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.6x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x | |
| $3500.35B | 36.4x | 23.7x | 13.0x |