Complete GTIM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
GTIM DCF Analysis
GTIM (Good Times Restaurants Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $138.2M | $138.1M | $142.3M | $149.1M | $155.5M | $161.6M | $167.2M | $172.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -0.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% |
| EBIT | $-5.7M | $2.5M | $1.4M | $7.5M | $7.8M | $8.1M | $8.4M | $8.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -4.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 16.0% |
| NOPAT | $-4.3M | $2.5M | $1.4M | $6.7M | $6.9M | $7.0M | $7.1M | $7.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Capex | $2.6M | $4.8M | $3.1M | $3.7M | $3.7M | $3.6M | $3.6M | $3.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Depreciation | $7.9M | $3.8M | $3.8M | $5.5M | $5.8M | $6.0M | $6.2M | $6.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Change in NWC | $420.0K | $-7.3M | $-833.0K | $-763.8K | $-637.3K | $-529.6K | $-438.4K | $-361.7K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.3% | -5.3% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $576.8K | $8.8M | $2.9M | $9.3M | $9.6M | $9.9M | $10.2M | $10.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 1420.1% | -66.7% | 217.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 0.4% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.931 | 0.866 | 0.806 | 0.750 | 0.698 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $8.6M | $8.3M | $8.0M | $7.7M | $7.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $8.6M | $16.9M | $24.9M | $32.6M | $39.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 10.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.18 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.5% |
| Total Debt | $44.4M |
| Market Cap | $17.1M |
| Total Capital | $61.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 72.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 27.7% |
| WACC | 7.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $10.5M |
| Terminal Value | $217.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $151.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $39.9M |
| Net Debt | $40.6M |
| Equity Value | $151.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $14 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +742.2% |
Valuation Summary
$13.56
Implied Price
$1.61
Current Price
+742.2%
Upside/Downside
7.4%
WACC
GTIM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$1.61
+0.0%
Peer Median: 15.7x
EV/EBITDA
$8.42
+423.0%
Peer Median: 19.5x
P/S Ratio
$7.79
+383.7%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GTIM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GTIM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.7x | 15.7x | 15.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6x | 19.5x | 21.0x | -35.4% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.1x | 0.6x | 1.8x | -79.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 4.9x | 718.7x | 0.2x | |
| $0.04B | 14.1x | 9.4x | 3.1x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 42.4x | 0.1x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.7x | |
| $0.02B | 15.7x | 12.6x | 0.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.6x | |
| $219.57B | 27.0x | 19.5x | 8.5x |
GTIM Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.10 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $2.90 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$2.59
Intrinsic Value
$1.61
Current Price
+60.9%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.10 = 2.31
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
2.31 × 2.90 = 6.71
Step 3: Take square root
√6.71 = 2.59
Graham Number Result:
$2.59
GTIM Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$2.82
EPV per Share
$1.61
Current Price
+75.4%
Upside/Downside
5.1%
WACC: 5.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 5.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $2.82 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 28.8% |
| Debt Weight | 71.2% |
| WACC | 5.1% |