Complete NDLS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
NDLS DCF Analysis
NDLS (Noodles & Company) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $509.5M | $503.4M | $493.3M | $504.9M | $515.6M | $525.4M | $534.4M | $542.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -1.2% | -2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| EBIT | $5.3M | $-5.0M | $-27.8M | $25.2M | $25.8M | $26.3M | $26.7M | $27.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | 1.0% | -1.0% | -5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 20.4% | 20.8% | 21.3% | 21.8% | 22.2% |
| NOPAT | $4.0M | $-3.8M | $-20.8M | $20.1M | $20.4M | $20.7M | $20.9M | $21.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 0.8% | -0.7% | -4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $33.9M | $52.0M | $28.8M | $30.1M | $29.2M | $28.2M | $27.3M | $26.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.7% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| Depreciation | $23.3M | $26.8M | $29.1M | $26.6M | $27.1M | $27.6M | $28.1M | $28.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| Change in NWC | $11.5M | $-2.4M | $-635.0K | $-2.5M | $-2.0M | $-1.7M | $-1.4M | $-1.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 2.3% | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-18.2M | $-26.6M | $-19.9M | $19.1M | $20.4M | $21.7M | $23.1M | $24.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -46.5% | 25.2% | 196.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -3.6% | -5.3% | -4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.940 | 0.883 | 0.830 | 0.780 | 0.733 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $17.9M | $18.0M | $18.0M | $18.0M | $17.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $17.9M | $36.0M | $54.0M | $72.0M | $89.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 20.4% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.70 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.6% |
| Total Debt | $291.5M |
| Market Cap | $34.1M |
| Total Capital | $325.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 89.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 10.5% |
| WACC | 6.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $24.4M |
| Terminal Value | $639.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $468.7M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $89.9M |
| Net Debt | $290.3M |
| Equity Value | $268.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 45.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $6 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +695.0% |
Valuation Summary
$5.90
Implied Price
$0.74
Current Price
+695.0%
Upside/Downside
6.4%
WACC
NDLS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-14.24
-2018.3%
Peer Median: 16.7x
EV/EBITDA
$3.06
+311.6%
Peer Median: 18.4x
P/S Ratio
$2.05
+175.7%
Peer Median: 0.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NDLS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NDLS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.9x | 16.7x | 15.1x | -105.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 42.4x | 18.4x | 20.7x | 131.1% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.1x | 0.2x | 1.8x | -63.7% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 4.9x | 702.3x | 0.2x | |
| $0.04B | 13.5x | 9.0x | 2.9x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 42.4x | 0.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.1x | |
| $0.02B | 16.7x | 12.8x | 0.1x | |
| $204.00B | 25.1x | 18.4x | 7.9x |