Complete BTBD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BTBD DCF Analysis
BTBD (BT Brands, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.6M | $14.1M | $14.8M | $17.2M | $19.6M | $22.1M | $24.7M | $27.2M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 11.7% | 5.3% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.4% |
| EBIT | $-391.2K | $-1.1M | $-1.8M | $858.4K | $980.5K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -3.1% | -7.6% | -12.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 22.8% | 23.0% | 23.2% | 23.4% | 23.7% |
| NOPAT | $-293.4K | $-804.4K | $-1.4M | $662.9K | $755.1K | $849.3K | $944.4K | $1.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2.3% | -5.7% | -9.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $478.4K | $488.4K | $494.1K | $513.4K | $557.1K | $597.0K | $632.5K | $663.2K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| Depreciation | $449.0K | $598.5K | $742.9K | $734.0K | $838.5K | $945.8K | $1.1M | $1.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-4.9M | $-1.1M | $-2.1M | $-641.5K | $-586.3K | $-529.1K | $-472.0K | $-416.8K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -39.0% | -7.5% | -14.3% | -3.7% | -3.0% | -2.4% | -1.9% | -1.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $4.6M | $357.8K | $996.6K | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.8M | $2.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -92.2% | 178.5% | 53.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 36.4% | 2.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.933 | 0.870 | 0.811 | 0.757 | 0.706 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.4M | $2.8M | $4.2M | $5.6M | $7.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 22.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.82 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.9% |
| Total Debt | $4.0M |
| Market Cap | $8.5M |
| Total Capital | $12.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 32.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 67.8% |
| WACC | 7.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.0M |
| Terminal Value | $42.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $30.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $7.0M |
| Net Debt | $2.1M |
| Equity Value | $34.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $6 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +307.8% |
Valuation Summary
$5.64
Implied Price
$1.38
Current Price
+307.8%
Upside/Downside
7.2%
WACC
BTBD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-9.69
-801.1%
Peer Median: 27.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 19.6x
P/S Ratio
$1.38
+0.0%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BTBD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BTBD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -3.9x | 27.2x | 21.7x | -114.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 19.6x | 24.9x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.6x | 0.6x | 2.2x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 42.4x | 0.1x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.7x | |
| $0.02B | 16.2x | 12.7x | 0.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.6x | |
| $220.72B | 27.2x | 19.6x | 8.6x |