Complete PRLB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
PRLB DCF Analysis
PRLB (Proto Labs, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $488.4M | $503.9M | $500.9M | $510.7M | $519.7M | $528.0M | $535.6M | $542.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 3.2% | -0.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| EBIT | $151.9M | $28.2M | $19.9M | $69.2M | $71.0M | $72.6M | $74.2M | $75.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 31.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 14.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 38.4% | 32.7% | 26.5% | 26.3% | 26.2% | 26.0% | 25.9% |
| NOPAT | $113.9M | $17.4M | $13.4M | $50.9M | $52.3M | $53.6M | $54.9M | $56.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 23.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.3% |
| Capex | $21.7M | $28.1M | $0 | $28.4M | $27.5M | $26.5M | $25.6M | $24.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.4% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| Depreciation | $39.4M | $37.5M | $35.8M | $38.6M | $39.3M | $39.9M | $40.5M | $41.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-13.6M | $36.0M | $-9.4M | $3.2M | $2.6M | $2.1M | $1.7M | $1.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -2.8% | 7.1% | -1.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $145.3M | $-9.2M | $58.6M | $57.9M | $61.5M | $64.9M | $68.1M | $71.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -106.4% | 735.0% | -1.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 29.7% | -1.8% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 13.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.909 | 0.827 | 0.752 | 0.684 | 0.622 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $52.6M | $50.9M | $48.8M | $46.6M | $44.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $52.6M | $103.5M | $152.3M | $198.9M | $243.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 26.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.26% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.32 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.0% |
| Total Debt | $3.5M |
| Market Cap | $946.3M |
| Total Capital | $949.8M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.6% |
| WACC | 10.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $71.1M |
| Terminal Value | $977.2M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $607.9M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $243.1M |
| Net Debt | $-85.6M |
| Equity Value | $936.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 25.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $37 |
| Current Share Price | $40 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -6.7% |
Valuation Summary
$37.15
Implied Price
$39.81
Current Price
-6.7%
Upside/Downside
10.0%
WACC
PRLB Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$18.32
-54.0%
Peer Median: 30.0x
EV/EBITDA
$22.41
-43.7%
Peer Median: 11.4x
P/S Ratio
$29.55
-25.8%
Peer Median: 1.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PRLB's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PRLB Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 65.2x | 30.0x | 34.2x | 117.3% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.4x | 11.4x | 12.8x | 61.6% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.9x | 1.4x | 1.7x | 34.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.39B | 75.6x | 11.4x | 0.9x | |
| $1.43B | 14.1x | 8.6x | 0.5x | |
| $1.45B | 21.5x | 11.3x | 1.1x | |
| $1.11B | 30.0x | 10.2x | 1.4x | |
| $0.97B | 21.9x | 11.7x | 1.5x | |
| $0.95B | 65.2x | 18.4x | 1.9x | |
| $0.95B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.7x | |
| $0.71B | 7.2x | 4.5x | 0.2x | |
| $0.68B | 32.2x | 24.4x | 4.9x | |
| $0.44B | 47.2x | 9.0x | 0.4x | |
| $88.95B | 26.8x | 18.5x | 4.5x |
PRLB Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.61 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $26.58 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$19.11
Intrinsic Value
$39.81
Current Price
-52.0%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.61 = 13.74
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
13.74 × 26.58 = 365.26
Step 3: Take square root
√365.26 = 19.11
Graham Number Result:
$19.11
PRLB Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$7.31
EPV per Share
$39.81
Current Price
-81.6%
Upside/Downside
9.0%
WACC: 9.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $7.31 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 99.7% |
| Debt Weight | 0.3% |
| WACC | 9.0% |