Complete GCTS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
GCTS DCF Analysis
GCTS (GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.7M | $16.0M | $9.1M | $8.2M | $7.4M | $6.7M | $6.0M | $5.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -3.8% | -43.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-1.2M | $-14.6M | $-13.1M | $410.8K | $369.7K | $332.7K | $299.4K | $269.5K |
| EBIT Margin % | -7.0% | -90.8% | -143.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 3.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 14.5% | 15.5% | 16.6% | 17.6% | 18.7% |
| NOPAT | $-1.1M | $-10.9M | $-9.8M | $351.3K | $312.3K | $277.6K | $246.7K | $219.2K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -6.8% | -68.1% | -107.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Capex | $903.0K | $331.0K | $542.0K | $326.9K | $279.5K | $239.0K | $204.3K | $174.7K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.4% | 2.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Depreciation | $1.5M | $1.8M | $1.3M | $957.5K | $861.7K | $775.5K | $698.0K | $628.2K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 9.3% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-1.0M | $-102.1M | $58.5M | $-251.6K | $-181.2K | $-130.4K | $-93.9K | $-67.6K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -6.1% | -636.8% | 640.5% | -3.1% | -2.5% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $538.8K | $92.6M | $-67.5M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $944.6K | $834.3K | $740.3K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 17089.2% | -172.9% | 101.8% | -12.8% | -12.2% | -11.7% | -11.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 3.2% | 577.8% | -739.7% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 13.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.929 | 0.864 | 0.803 | 0.746 | 0.694 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.1M | $929.4K | $758.6K | $622.7K | $513.6K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.1M | $2.1M | $2.8M | $3.5M | $4.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 14.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.05 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.9% |
| Total Debt | $43.4M |
| Market Cap | $54.4M |
| Total Capital | $97.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 44.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 55.6% |
| WACC | 7.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $740.3K |
| Terminal Value | $14.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $10.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $4.0M |
| Net Debt | $42.0M |
| Equity Value | $-27.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 45.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $-1 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -159.0% |
Valuation Summary
$-0.61
Implied Price
$1.03
Current Price
-159.0%
Upside/Downside
7.6%
WACC
GCTS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-13.03
-1365.9%
Peer Median: 48.0x
EV/EBITDA
$2.09
+103.2%
Peer Median: 40.2x
P/S Ratio
$0.72
-30.0%
Peer Median: 4.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GCTS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GCTS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -3.8x | 48.0x | 47.1x | -107.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.0x | 40.2x | 37.9x | -12.8% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 6.0x | 4.2x | 3.7x | 42.9% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.28B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 179.3x | |
| $0.13B | 88.7x | 269.9x | 2.7x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.2x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.9x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.0x | |
| $0.05B | 4.8x | 35.6x | 6.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.8x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x | |
| $3457.11B | 48.0x | 40.2x | 26.5x |