Complete LSTA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
LSTA DCF Analysis
LSTA (Lisata Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $121.4M | $0 | $1.0M | $900.0K | $810.0K | $729.0K | $656.1K | $590.5K |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -100.0% | Infinity% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-57.6M | $-25.7M | $-22.4M | $45.0K | $40.5K | $36.5K | $32.8K | $29.5K |
| EBIT Margin % | -47.5% | 0.0% | -2240.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-43.2M | $-19.3M | $-16.8M | $33.8K | $30.4K | $27.3K | $24.6K | $22.1K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -35.6% | -Infinity% | -1680.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $285.0K | $0 | $0 | $9.0K | $8.1K | $7.3K | $6.6K | $5.9K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.2% | NaN% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $69.0K | $189.0K | $174.0K | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.1% | Infinity% | 17.4% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Change in NWC | $-26.2M | $-18.2M | $-18.4M | $9.0K | $8.1K | $7.3K | $6.6K | $5.9K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -21.6% | -Infinity% | -1836.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-17.3M | $-933.0K | $1.7M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 94.6% | 286.1% | Infinity% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -14.2% | -Infinity% | 173.6% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.920 | 0.846 | 0.778 | 0.716 | 0.658 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | $137.0K |
| Market Cap | $22.9M |
| Total Capital | $23.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.4% |
| WACC | 8.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $InfinityB |
| Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| PV of Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $InfinityB |
| Net Debt | $-16.1M |
| Equity Value | $InfinityB |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $InfinityB |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +Infinity% |
Valuation Summary
$Infinity
Implied Price
$2.66
Current Price
+Infinity%
Upside/Downside
8.7%
WACC
LSTA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$0.29
-89.0%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LSTA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LSTA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.2x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 22.9x | 2.5x | 2.4x | 807.0% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 110.2x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 51.8x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 61.5x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 22.9x | |
| $0.03B | 206.2x | 143.3x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.2x |