Complete AMPG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
AMPG DCF Analysis
AMPG (AmpliTech Group, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.4M | $15.6M | $9.5M | $11.9M | $14.9M | $18.6M | $23.2M | $28.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -19.6% | -39.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.5% |
| EBIT | $-687.8K | $-2.6M | $-8.4M | $594.3K | $742.8K | $928.6K | $1.2M | $1.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -3.5% | -16.5% | -88.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-515.8K | $-1.9M | $-6.3M | $445.7K | $557.1K | $696.4K | $870.5K | $1.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2.7% | -12.4% | -66.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $735.8K | $973.3K | $42.9K | $373.3K | $443.2K | $526.3K | $625.0K | $739.1K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.8% | 6.2% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Depreciation | $957.3K | $531.2K | $538.8K | $555.1K | $693.8K | $867.3K | $1.1M | $1.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-136.7K | $-4.7M | $11.1M | $-41.9K | $-41.9K | $-41.9K | $-41.9K | $-41.7K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.7% | -30.0% | 117.2% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-157.7K | $2.3M | $-17.0M | $669.4K | $849.6K | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 1562.7% | -836.0% | 103.9% | 26.9% | 27.0% | 27.1% | 26.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -0.8% | 14.8% | -178.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.986 | 0.973 | 0.959 | 0.946 | 0.933 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $660.2K | $826.3K | $1.0M | $1.3M | $1.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $660.2K | $1.5M | $2.5M | $3.8M | $5.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.41% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | -0.78 |
| Cost of Equity | 1.0% |
| Total Debt | $4.6M |
| Market Cap | $46.9M |
| Total Capital | $51.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 9.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.0% |
| WACC | 1.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.7M |
| Terminal Value | $-161.3M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $-150.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $5.4M |
| Net Debt | $-14.7M |
| Equity Value | $-130.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 10.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $-12 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -647.9% |
Valuation Summary
$-12.49
Implied Price
$2.28
Current Price
-647.9%
Upside/Downside
1.4%
WACC
AMPG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-18.73
-921.4%
Peer Median: 43.7x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 15.0x
P/S Ratio
$0.85
-62.8%
Peer Median: 1.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AMPG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AMPG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -5.3x | 43.7x | 33.7x | -112.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 15.0x | 18.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.3x | 1.6x | 2.5x | 168.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.22B | 72.3x | 15.0x | 1.5x | |
| $0.90B | 18.4x | 12.5x | 1.6x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1242.5x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.3x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $0.04B | 0.4x | 1540.7x | 0.0x | |
| $109.05B | 43.7x | 26.4x | 6.5x |