Complete ROG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
ROG DCF Analysis
ROG (Rogers Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $971.2M | $908.4M | $830.1M | $805.7M | $784.3M | $765.6M | $749.2M | $734.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -6.5% | -8.6% | -2.9% | -2.6% | -2.4% | -2.1% | -1.9% |
| EBIT | $144.4M | $85.3M | $24.9M | $73.2M | $72.1M | $71.1M | $70.3M | $69.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 14.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% |
| Tax Rate % | 16.9% | 25.8% | 23.9% | 21.6% | 22.0% | 22.3% | 22.6% | 23.0% |
| NOPAT | $120.0M | $63.3M | $18.9M | $57.4M | $56.2M | $55.3M | $54.4M | $53.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 12.4% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Capex | $116.8M | $57.0M | $56.1M | $60.8M | $56.2M | $52.1M | $48.5M | $45.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 12.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% |
| Depreciation | $45.9M | $51.1M | $0 | $27.8M | $27.1M | $26.4M | $25.8M | $25.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.7% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Change in NWC | $97.2M | $-106.8M | $-40.1M | $3.6M | $2.8M | $2.2M | $1.7M | $1.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 10.0% | -11.8% | -4.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-48.1M | $164.2M | $2.9M | $20.8M | $24.3M | $27.4M | $30.1M | $32.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 441.2% | -98.2% | 607.3% | 16.7% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 8.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -5.0% | 18.1% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.941 | 0.886 | 0.834 | 0.785 | 0.739 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $19.6M | $21.5M | $22.8M | $23.6M | $24.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $19.6M | $41.2M | $64.0M | $87.6M | $111.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 21.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.42 |
| Cost of Equity | 6.3% |
| Total Debt | $24.6M |
| Market Cap | $1.2B |
| Total Capital | $1.3B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.1% |
| WACC | 6.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $32.6M |
| Terminal Value | $890.3M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $657.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $111.7M |
| Net Debt | $-135.2M |
| Equity Value | $904.4M |
| Shares Outstanding | 18.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $49 |
| Current Share Price | $67 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -27.6% |
Valuation Summary
$48.62
Implied Price
$67.17
Current Price
-27.6%
Upside/Downside
6.2%
WACC
ROG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$40.49
-39.7%
Peer Median: 44.3x
EV/EBITDA
$65.88
-1.9%
Peer Median: 16.8x
P/S Ratio
$97.69
+45.4%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ROG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ROG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 73.5x | 44.3x | 36.9x | 65.9% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3x | 16.8x | 16.8x | -9.1% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 1.5x | 2.2x | 2.4x | -31.2% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.54B | 192.0x | 17.9x | 2.2x | |
| $5.24B | 55.5x | 16.8x | 2.4x | |
| $4.27B | 20.7x | 13.9x | 1.7x | |
| $1.98B | 8.3x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $1.44B | 100.2x | 17.8x | 2.3x | |
| $1.24B | 73.5x | 15.3x | 1.5x | |
| $0.94B | 19.1x | 12.9x | 1.7x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1295.3x | |
| $110.64B | 44.3x | 26.8x | 6.6x |
ROG Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.91 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $67.29 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$37.19
Intrinsic Value
$67.17
Current Price
-44.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.91 = 20.55
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
20.55 × 67.29 = 1383.09
Step 3: Take square root
√1383.09 = 37.19
Graham Number Result:
$37.19
ROG Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$15.40
EPV per Share
$67.17
Current Price
-77.1%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC: 9.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $15.40 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.1% |
| Debt Weight | 1.9% |
| WACC | 9.1% |