Complete CPSH Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
CPSH DCF Analysis
CPSH (CPS Technologies Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.6M | $27.6M | $21.1M | $20.3M | $19.6M | $19.0M | $18.5M | $18.0M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 3.6% | -23.3% | -3.8% | -3.4% | -3.1% | -2.8% | -2.5% |
| EBIT | $2.2M | $1.7M | $-4.4M | $1.0M | $981.2K | $951.0K | $924.7K | $901.6K |
| EBIT Margin % | 8.4% | 6.2% | -20.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 26.2% | 29.8% | 25.0% | 16.2% | 17.1% | 18.0% | 18.8% | 19.7% |
| NOPAT | $1.6M | $1.2M | $-3.3M | $851.3K | $813.5K | $780.1K | $750.4K | $723.7K |
| NOPAT Margin % | 6.2% | 4.3% | -15.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| Capex | $439.8K | $718.3K | $994.3K | $520.5K | $477.5K | $439.7K | $406.1K | $376.2K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Depreciation | $445.7K | $489.1K | $547.2K | $409.3K | $395.2K | $383.1K | $372.5K | $363.2K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Change in NWC | $3.5M | $1.6M | $-4.2M | $603.9K | $466.6K | $361.8K | $281.4K | $219.5K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 13.1% | 5.9% | -20.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-1.8M | $-674.0K | $491.2K | $136.2K | $264.7K | $361.8K | $435.3K | $491.2K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 63.2% | 172.9% | -72.3% | 94.3% | 36.7% | 20.3% | 12.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -6.9% | -2.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.945 | 0.893 | 0.844 | 0.798 | 0.754 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $128.7K | $236.4K | $305.4K | $347.3K | $370.4K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $128.7K | $365.2K | $670.6K | $1.0M | $1.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 16.2% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.23 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.8% |
| Total Debt | $194.1B |
| Market Cap | $41.6M |
| Total Capital | $194.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 100.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 0.0% |
| WACC | 5.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $491.2K |
| Terminal Value | $15.2M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $11.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.4M |
| Net Debt | $194.1B |
| Equity Value | $-194.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 14.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $-13.4K |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -466377.4% |
Valuation Summary
$-13363.51
Implied Price
$2.87
Current Price
-466377.4%
Upside/Downside
5.8%
WACC
CPSH Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$277.40
+9578.9%
Peer Median: 43.4x
EV/EBITDA
$227.84
+7849.8%
Peer Median: 26.3x
P/S Ratio
$2.17K
+75685.8%
Peer Median: 4.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CPSH's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CPSH Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.4x | 43.4x | 21.9x | -99.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 1540.8x | 26.3x | 26.3x | 5766.8% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.0x | 4.2x | 2.9x | -99.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1293.9x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.2x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $0.04B | 0.4x | 1540.8x | 0.0x | |
| $108.33B | 43.4x | 26.3x | 6.5x |
CPSH Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $6.39 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $999067.51 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$11987.23
Intrinsic Value
$2.87
Current Price
+418156.4%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 6.39 = 143.83
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
143.83 × 999067.51 = 143693656.10
Step 3: Take square root
√143693656.10 = 11987.23
Graham Number Result:
$11987.23
CPSH Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
6.39 × (8.5 + 2 × 35.4%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$6.39
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-28T00:00:00
Historical 5Y35.4%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$507.22
Intrinsic Value
$2.87
Current Price
+17597.8%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 35.4%
CPSH Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$6.39
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-28T00:00:00
Historical 5Y35.4%
5-year earnings growth
35.4%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$6.39 × 35.4% = $226.44
$226.44
Fair Value
$2.87
Current Price
+7801.0%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
0.4x
Current P/E
35.4%
Growth Rate
0.01
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
CPSH Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | -0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | -0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$-6.18
EPV per Share
$2.87
Current Price
-315.6%
Upside/Downside
3.5%
WACC: 3.5% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $-0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 3.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $-0.1B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $-0.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $-6.18 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 0.0% |
| Debt Weight | 100.0% |
| WACC | 3.5% |