Complete AIRG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
AIRG DCF Analysis
AIRG (Airgain, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $75.9M | $56.0M | $60.6M | $62.0M | $63.2M | $64.4M | $65.5M | $66.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -26.2% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| EBIT | $-8.6M | $-12.4M | $-8.9M | $3.1M | $3.2M | $3.2M | $3.3M | $3.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -11.3% | -22.1% | -14.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-6.4M | $-9.3M | $-6.7M | $2.3M | $2.4M | $2.4M | $2.5M | $2.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -8.5% | -16.6% | -11.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $763.0K | $346.0K | $178.0K | $619.8K | $632.5K | $644.1K | $654.8K | $664.5K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $3.7M | $3.6M | $3.6M | $3.6M | $3.6M | $3.7M | $3.8M | $3.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Change in NWC | $-1.3M | $-5.2M | $3.2M | $-874.6K | $-714.0K | $-581.7K | $-473.1K | $-384.1K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -1.8% | -9.2% | 5.3% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-2.1M | $-852.0K | $-6.5M | $6.1M | $6.1M | $6.1M | $6.0M | $6.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 60.4% | -667.3% | 194.0% | -0.9% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -2.8% | -1.5% | -10.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $5.7M | $5.2M | $4.8M | $4.4M | $4.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $5.7M | $10.9M | $15.7M | $20.2M | $24.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.41% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.88 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.2% |
| Total Debt | $3.9M |
| Market Cap | $47.1M |
| Total Capital | $51.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 7.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 92.3% |
| WACC | 8.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $6.0M |
| Terminal Value | $112.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $76.7M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $24.3M |
| Net Debt | $-4.6M |
| Equity Value | $105.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $10 |
| Current Share Price | $4 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +139.4% |
Valuation Summary
$9.55
Implied Price
$3.99
Current Price
+139.4%
Upside/Downside
8.0%
WACC
AIRG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-12.33
-409.1%
Peer Median: 18.4x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 26.4x
P/S Ratio
$7.99
+100.2%
Peer Median: 1.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AIRG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AIRG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -5.9x | 18.4x | 20.8x | -132.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 26.4x | 19.5x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.8x | 1.6x | 2.7x | -50.0% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.90B | 18.4x | 12.5x | 1.6x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1242.5x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.3x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $0.04B | 0.4x | 1540.7x | 0.0x | |
| $109.05B | 43.7x | 26.4x | 6.5x |