Complete AEHL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
AEHL DCF Analysis
AEHL (Antelope Enterprise Holdings Limited) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $286.3M | $510.5M | $98.8M | $123.5M | $154.3M | $192.9M | $241.1M | $301.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 78.3% | -80.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-8.4M | $-88.1M | $-10.2M | $6.2M | $7.7M | $9.6M | $12.1M | $15.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -2.9% | -17.3% | -10.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-6.3M | $-66.1M | $-7.6M | $4.6M | $5.8M | $7.2M | $9.0M | $11.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2.2% | -12.9% | -7.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $28.0K | $500.0K | $4.2M | $1.5M | $1.8M | $2.2M | $2.6M | $3.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $255.0K | $361.0K | $178.0K | $139.9K | $174.9K | $218.6K | $273.3K | $341.6K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-23.4M | $8.4M | $-6.1M | $-3.9M | $-3.9M | $-3.9M | $-3.9M | $-3.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -8.2% | 1.7% | -6.2% | -3.2% | -2.6% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $17.4M | $-74.7M | $-5.5M | $7.2M | $8.1M | $9.2M | $10.7M | $12.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -529.6% | 92.6% | 230.3% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 15.8% | 17.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 6.1% | -14.6% | -5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.940 | 0.883 | 0.830 | 0.780 | 0.733 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $6.7M | $7.1M | $7.7M | $8.3M | $9.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $6.7M | $13.9M | $21.6M | $29.9M | $39.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.65 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.2% |
| Total Debt | $6.9M |
| Market Cap | $7.7M |
| Total Capital | $14.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 47.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 52.9% |
| WACC | 6.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $12.5M |
| Terminal Value | $329.3M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $241.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $39.1M |
| Net Debt | $5.8M |
| Equity Value | $274.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $40 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1655.3% |
Valuation Summary
$39.67
Implied Price
$2.26
Current Price
+1655.3%
Upside/Downside
6.4%
WACC
AEHL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-261.84
-11685.9%
Peer Median: 18.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 13.7x
P/S Ratio
$173.45
+7575.0%
Peer Median: 1.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AEHL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AEHL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.2x | 18.6x | 18.6x | -100.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 13.7x | 13.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.0x | 1.0x | 2.2x | -98.7% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.8x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.00B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $2049.44B | 18.6x | 13.7x | 5.7x |