Complete TTSH Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
TTSH DCF Analysis
TTSH (Tile Shop Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $394.7M | $377.1M | $347.1M | $340.7M | $335.1M | $330.2M | $325.8M | $321.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -4.4% | -8.0% | -1.8% | -1.6% | -1.5% | -1.3% | -1.2% |
| EBIT | $22.6M | $16.2M | $3.5M | $17.0M | $16.8M | $16.5M | $16.3M | $16.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.3% | 28.0% | 28.4% | 21.5% | 21.9% | 22.2% | 22.6% | 22.9% |
| NOPAT | $16.9M | $11.6M | $2.5M | $13.4M | $13.1M | $12.8M | $12.6M | $12.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $14.0M | $15.3M | $14.5M | $10.5M | $9.8M | $9.2M | $8.6M | $8.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Depreciation | $25.1M | $21.2M | $17.8M | $19.4M | $19.1M | $18.8M | $18.6M | $18.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Change in NWC | $33.7M | $-27.3M | $5.6M | $2.3M | $1.8M | $1.4M | $1.1M | $880.3K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 8.5% | -7.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-5.7M | $44.8M | $123.9K | $20.0M | $20.6M | $21.1M | $21.5M | $21.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 880.4% | -99.7% | 16077.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1.5% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.925 | 0.856 | 0.792 | 0.733 | 0.679 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $18.5M | $17.7M | $16.7M | $15.8M | $14.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $18.5M | $36.2M | $52.9M | $68.7M | $83.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 21.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.11 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| Total Debt | $142.6M |
| Market Cap | $297.5M |
| Total Capital | $440.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 32.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 67.6% |
| WACC | 8.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $21.8M |
| Terminal Value | $402.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $272.9M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $83.5M |
| Net Debt | $121.6M |
| Equity Value | $234.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 43.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $7 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -19.5% |
Valuation Summary
$5.35
Implied Price
$6.65
Current Price
-19.5%
Upside/Downside
8.1%
WACC
TTSH Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$0.61
-90.8%
Peer Median: 24.9x
EV/EBITDA
$5.14
-22.8%
Peer Median: 21.1x
P/S Ratio
$11.56
+73.8%
Peer Median: 1.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TTSH's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TTSH Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 270.5x | 24.9x | 29.1x | 987.8% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.5x | 21.1x | 22.4x | 82.4% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.9x | 1.5x | 1.4x | -42.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $368.50B | 24.9x | 17.1x | 2.3x | |
| $125.96B | 18.2x | 13.1x | 1.5x | |
| $8.99B | 44.2x | 21.1x | 2.0x | |
| $0.30B | 270.5x | 38.5x | 0.9x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.4x |
TTSH Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.02 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $2.80 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$1.25
Intrinsic Value
$6.65
Current Price
-81.3%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.02 = 0.55
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
0.55 × 2.80 = 1.55
Step 3: Take square root
√1.55 = 1.25
Graham Number Result:
$1.25
TTSH Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$0.73
EPV per Share
$6.65
Current Price
-89.0%
Upside/Downside
7.3%
WACC: 7.3% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $0.73 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 67.2% |
| Debt Weight | 32.8% |
| WACC | 7.3% |