Complete FND Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
FND DCF Analysis
FND (Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.3B | $4.4B | $4.5B | $4.9B | $5.4B | $5.8B | $6.3B | $6.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 3.5% | 0.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% |
| EBIT | $396.8M | $321.4M | $256.2M | $366.3M | $406.1M | $446.2M | $486.4M | $526.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 22.7% | 21.0% | 18.8% | 16.7% | 17.5% | 18.4% | 19.2% | 20.0% |
| NOPAT | $306.8M | $253.8M | $208.1M | $305.1M | $334.8M | $364.2M | $393.0M | $420.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Capex | $456.6M | $547.6M | $446.8M | $529.2M | $549.9M | $566.5M | $579.1M | $587.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 10.7% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Depreciation | $155.0M | $201.9M | $232.5M | $220.2M | $240.9M | $261.2M | $281.1M | $300.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Change in NWC | $209.4M | $-286.1M | $83.6M | $-25.8M | $-22.5M | $-19.6M | $-16.8M | $-14.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 4.9% | -6.5% | 1.9% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-204.2M | $194.2M | $-89.8M | $21.9M | $48.4M | $78.5M | $111.8M | $147.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 195.1% | -146.2% | 124.4% | 121.0% | 62.3% | 42.5% | 32.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -4.8% | 4.4% | -2.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.903 | 0.815 | 0.736 | 0.665 | 0.600 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $19.8M | $39.4M | $57.8M | $74.3M | $88.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $19.8M | $59.2M | $117.0M | $191.3M | $280.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.3% |
| Tax Rate | 16.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.72 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.8% |
| Total Debt | $1.7B |
| Market Cap | $9.0B |
| Total Capital | $10.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 15.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 84.2% |
| WACC | 10.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $147.9M |
| Terminal Value | $1.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $280.0M |
| Net Debt | $1.5B |
| Equity Value | $-116.4M |
| Shares Outstanding | 108.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $-1 |
| Current Share Price | $84 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -101.3% |
Valuation Summary
$-1.07
Implied Price
$83.50
Current Price
-101.3%
Upside/Downside
10.8%
WACC
FND Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$46.99
-43.7%
Peer Median: 24.9x
EV/EBITDA
$97.43
+16.7%
Peer Median: 21.1x
P/S Ratio
$63.22
-24.3%
Peer Median: 1.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FND's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FND Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.2x | 24.9x | 29.1x | 77.7% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.1x | 21.1x | 22.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 2.0x | 1.5x | 1.4x | 32.1% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $368.50B | 24.9x | 17.1x | 2.3x | |
| $125.96B | 18.2x | 13.1x | 1.5x | |
| $8.99B | 44.2x | 21.1x | 2.0x | |
| $0.30B | 270.5x | 38.5x | 0.9x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.4x |
FND Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.89 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $20.03 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$29.19
Intrinsic Value
$83.50
Current Price
-65.0%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.89 = 42.52
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
42.52 × 20.03 = 851.96
Step 3: Take square root
√851.96 = 29.19
Graham Number Result:
$29.19
FND Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$23.09
EPV per Share
$83.50
Current Price
-72.3%
Upside/Downside
8.2%
WACC: 8.2% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.5B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $23.09 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 84.3% |
| Debt Weight | 15.7% |
| WACC | 8.2% |