Complete GRWG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
GRWG DCF Analysis
GRWG (GrowGeneration Corp.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $278.2M | $225.9M | $188.9M | $175.3M | $164.0M | $154.5M | $146.4M | $139.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -18.8% | -16.4% | -7.2% | -6.5% | -5.8% | -5.2% | -4.7% |
| EBIT | $-38.3M | $-49.8M | $-52.0M | $8.8M | $8.2M | $7.7M | $7.3M | $7.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | -13.8% | -22.1% | -27.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.8% | 25.7% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.5% |
| NOPAT | $-28.7M | $-37.4M | $-39.0M | $6.5M | $6.1M | $5.7M | $5.4M | $5.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -10.3% | -16.5% | -20.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $12.9M | $6.7M | $2.0M | $5.4M | $4.8M | $4.3M | $3.9M | $3.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Depreciation | $17.1M | $16.6M | $19.4M | $13.9M | $13.0M | $12.3M | $11.6M | $11.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-34.9M | $-18.4M | $-27.6M | $-7.1M | $-5.3M | $-4.0M | $-3.0M | $-2.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -12.6% | -8.1% | -14.6% | -4.1% | -3.3% | -2.6% | -2.1% | -1.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $10.4M | $-9.1M | $6.1M | $22.2M | $19.6M | $17.7M | $16.2M | $15.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -187.3% | 166.6% | 265.2% | -11.3% | -9.7% | -8.3% | -7.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 3.8% | -4.0% | 3.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 10.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.877 | 0.770 | 0.676 | 0.593 | 0.520 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $19.4M | $15.1M | $12.0M | $9.6M | $7.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $19.4M | $34.6M | $46.5M | $56.2M | $64.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 3.39 |
| Cost of Equity | 19.1% |
| Total Debt | $37.0M |
| Market Cap | $60.7M |
| Total Capital | $97.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 37.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 62.1% |
| WACC | 14.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $15.1M |
| Terminal Value | $134.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $70.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $64.0M |
| Net Debt | $9.6M |
| Equity Value | $124.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 60.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +103.0% |
Valuation Summary
$2.07
Implied Price
$1.02
Current Price
+103.0%
Upside/Downside
14.0%
WACC
GRWG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-20.61
-2120.7%
Peer Median: 24.5x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 20.5x
P/S Ratio
$4.36
+327.6%
Peer Median: 1.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GRWG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GRWG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.2x | 24.5x | 28.3x | -104.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 20.5x | 22.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.3x | 1.5x | 1.4x | -76.6% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $362.77B | 24.5x | 16.9x | 2.3x | |
| $122.90B | 17.7x | 12.9x | 1.5x | |
| $8.69B | 42.7x | 20.5x | 1.9x | |
| $0.29B | 263.6x | 37.8x | 0.8x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x |