Complete COHR Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
COHR DCF Analysis
COHR (Coherent, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.3B | $5.2B | $4.7B | $5.5B | $6.4B | $7.3B | $8.3B | $9.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 55.6% | -8.8% | 17.6% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.5% |
| EBIT | $414.3M | $82.0M | $123.2M | $308.1M | $363.2M | $422.2M | $484.6M | $549.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 12.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 16.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 21.5% | 21.8% | 22.2% | 22.5% | 22.9% |
| NOPAT | $345.1M | $61.5M | $92.4M | $241.9M | $284.0M | $328.6M | $375.4M | $423.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 10.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| Capex | $314.3M | $436.1M | $346.8M | $395.8M | $435.5M | $472.7M | $506.5M | $536.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Depreciation | $286.8M | $681.7M | $559.8M | $622.7M | $721.1M | $823.8M | $929.3M | $1.0B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 8.6% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| Change in NWC | $740.4M | $-865.0M | $143.1M | $84.1M | $77.9M | $71.2M | $64.3M | $57.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 22.3% | -16.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-422.9M | $1.2B | $162.2M | $384.6M | $491.6M | $608.5M | $733.9M | $866.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 377.2% | -86.2% | 137.1% | 27.8% | 23.8% | 20.6% | 18.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -12.7% | 22.7% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.905 | 0.819 | 0.742 | 0.671 | 0.608 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $348.2M | $402.9M | $451.4M | $492.8M | $526.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $348.2M | $751.0M | $1.2B | $1.7B | $2.2B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate | 21.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.91 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.7% |
| Total Debt | $4.3B |
| Market Cap | $12.5B |
| Total Capital | $16.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 25.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 74.5% |
| WACC | 10.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $866.4M |
| Terminal Value | $11.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $6.8B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $2.2B |
| Net Debt | $3.4B |
| Equity Value | $5.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 151.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $37 |
| Current Share Price | $81 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -54.1% |
Valuation Summary
$37.05
Implied Price
$80.70
Current Price
-54.1%
Upside/Downside
10.5%
WACC
COHR Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$18.63
-76.9%
Peer Median: 44.3x
EV/EBITDA
$96.25
+19.3%
Peer Median: 16.8x
P/S Ratio
$80.70
+0.0%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for COHR's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | COHR Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 192.0x | 44.3x | 45.3x | 333.1% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.9x | 16.8x | 17.3x | 6.4% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 2.2x | 2.2x | 2.5x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110.64B | 44.3x | 26.8x | 6.6x | |
| $43.41B | 95.4x | 21.3x | 3.2x | |
| $12.54B | 192.0x | 17.9x | 2.2x | |
| $5.24B | 55.5x | 16.8x | 2.4x | |
| $4.27B | 20.7x | 13.9x | 1.7x | |
| $1.98B | 8.3x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $1.44B | 100.2x | 17.8x | 2.3x | |
| $1.24B | 73.5x | 15.3x | 1.5x | |
| $0.94B | 19.1x | 12.9x | 1.7x |
COHR Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.42 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $49.97 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$21.74
Intrinsic Value
$80.70
Current Price
-73.1%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.42 = 9.46
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
9.46 × 49.97 = 472.61
Step 3: Take square root
√472.61 = 21.74
Graham Number Result:
$21.74
COHR Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.42 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.42
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-30T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$10.30
Intrinsic Value
$80.70
Current Price
-87.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
COHR Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.42
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-30T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.42 × 10.0% = $4.20
$4.20
Fair Value
$80.70
Current Price
-94.8%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
192.0x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
19.20
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).