Complete BDC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 7 different methodologies
BDC DCF Analysis
BDC (Belden Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.6B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -3.6% | -2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| EBIT | $363.3M | $317.5M | $266.5M | $315.1M | $325.2M | $334.9M | $344.2M | $352.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | 13.9% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.9% |
| Tax Rate % | 15.6% | 15.1% | 13.0% | 18.0% | 18.7% | 19.4% | 20.1% | 20.8% |
| NOPAT | $306.5M | $269.5M | $231.9M | $258.2M | $264.3M | $269.8M | $274.9M | $279.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Capex | $105.1M | $116.7M | $129.1M | $114.7M | $111.6M | $108.3M | $104.9M | $101.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| Depreciation | $88.7M | $99.4M | $115.7M | $101.6M | $104.1M | $106.3M | $108.4M | $110.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Change in NWC | $147.8M | $-72.8M | $-249.9M | $62.3M | $51.1M | $41.7M | $34.0M | $27.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 5.7% | -2.9% | -10.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $142.3M | $325.0M | $468.5M | $182.8M | $205.7M | $226.1M | $244.4M | $260.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 128.3% | 44.1% | -61.0% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 5.5% | 12.9% | 19.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.920 | 0.846 | 0.779 | 0.716 | 0.659 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $168.2M | $174.1M | $176.1M | $175.0M | $171.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $168.2M | $342.3M | $518.4M | $693.4M | $865.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 18.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.24 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.8% |
| Total Debt | $1.3B |
| Market Cap | $4.3B |
| Total Capital | $5.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 22.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 77.3% |
| WACC | 8.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $260.6M |
| Terminal Value | $4.3B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.8B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $865.1M |
| Net Debt | $880.9M |
| Equity Value | $2.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 41.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $68 |
| Current Share Price | $108 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -36.8% |
Valuation Summary
$68.34
Implied Price
$108.14
Current Price
-36.8%
Upside/Downside
8.7%
WACC
BDC Dividend Discount Model
BDC dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
DDM Method Selection
Model Assumptions
Historical 5Y CAGR: 0.0%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
Valuation Result
$2.04
Intrinsic Value
$108.14
Current Price
-98.1%
Upside/Downside
Medium Confidence
Dividend History & Growth Analysis
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $0.20Current | $0.00 | +0.0% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $0.20 | $0.00 | +0.0% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $0.20 | $0.00 | +0.0% | TTM Historical |
2022Q2 2021 - Q2 2022 | $0.20 | $0.00 | +0.0% | TTM Historical |
2021Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 | $0.20 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Analysis
Average Growth Rate: +0.0%
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
Intrinsic Value = D₁ / (r - g)
Substitution:
= $0.20 / (9.8% - 0.0%)
Result:
$2.04
BDC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$231.19
+113.8%
Peer Median: 44.3x
EV/EBITDA
$158.50
+46.6%
Peer Median: 16.8x
P/S Ratio
$144.75
+33.9%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BDC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BDC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.7x | 44.3x | 45.3x | -53.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.9x | 16.8x | 17.3x | -17.7% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 1.7x | 2.2x | 2.5x | -25.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110.64B | 44.3x | 26.8x | 6.6x | |
| $43.41B | 95.4x | 21.3x | 3.2x | |
| $12.54B | 192.0x | 17.9x | 2.2x | |
| $5.24B | 55.5x | 16.8x | 2.4x | |
| $4.27B | 20.7x | 13.9x | 1.7x | |
| $1.98B | 8.3x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $1.44B | 100.2x | 17.8x | 2.3x | |
| $1.24B | 73.5x | 15.3x | 1.5x | |
| $0.94B | 19.1x | 12.9x | 1.7x |
BDC Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $5.22 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $31.35 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$60.66
Intrinsic Value
$108.14
Current Price
-43.9%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 5.22 = 117.37
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
117.37 × 31.35 = 3679.52
Step 3: Take square root
√3679.52 = 60.66
Graham Number Result:
$60.66
BDC Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
5.22 × (8.5 + 2 × 52.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$5.22
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y52.0%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y13.4%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$586.69
Intrinsic Value
$108.14
Current Price
+442.5%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 52.0%
BDC Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$5.22
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y52.0%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y13.4%
5-year earnings growth
52.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$5.22 × 52.0% = $271.17
$271.17
Fair Value
$108.14
Current Price
+150.8%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
20.7x
Current P/E
52.0%
Growth Rate
0.40
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
BDC Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$60.30
EPV per Share
$108.14
Current Price
-44.2%
Upside/Downside
8.0%
WACC: 8.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.5B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $60.30 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 78.1% |
| Debt Weight | 21.9% |
| WACC | 8.0% |