Complete OPRT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
OPRT DCF Analysis
OPRT (Oportun Financial Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $640.7M | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 65.0% | -5.2% | 25.0% | 24.7% | 22.2% | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| EBIT | $17.8M | $-198.8M | $-115.2M | $62.6M | $78.0M | $95.4M | $114.4M | $135.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | 2.8% | -18.8% | -11.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.9% | 24.9% | 24.9% | 24.9% | 24.9% |
| NOPAT | $13.3M | $-149.1M | $-86.4M | $47.0M | $58.6M | $71.6M | $85.9M | $101.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.1% | -14.1% | -8.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $48.9M | $31.3M | $19.2M | $63.7M | $75.4M | $87.6M | $99.8M | $111.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| Depreciation | $47.5M | $54.9M | $51.2M | $74.0M | $92.2M | $112.6M | $135.1M | $159.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Change in NWC | $478.1M | $-401.1M | $214.1M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 74.6% | -38.0% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-466.2M | $275.7M | $-268.5M | $57.3M | $75.3M | $96.7M | $121.2M | $148.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 159.1% | -197.4% | 121.3% | 31.6% | 28.3% | 25.4% | 22.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -72.8% | 26.1% | -26.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.944 | 0.891 | 0.840 | 0.793 | 0.749 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $54.0M | $67.1M | $81.2M | $96.1M | $111.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $54.0M | $121.1M | $202.4M | $298.5M | $409.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 24.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.24 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.8% |
| Total Debt | $2.8B |
| Market Cap | $300.3M |
| Total Capital | $3.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 90.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 9.6% |
| WACC | 6.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $148.9M |
| Terminal Value | $4.4B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $3.3B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $409.9M |
| Net Debt | $2.8B |
| Equity Value | $945.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 40.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $23 |
| Current Share Price | $7 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +242.2% |
Valuation Summary
$23.42
Implied Price
$6.84
Current Price
+242.2%
Upside/Downside
6.0%
WACC
OPRT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Financial Services
P/E Ratio
$-6.82
-199.6%
Peer Median: 7.5x
EV/EBITDA
$5.24
-23.4%
Peer Median: 14.9x
P/S Ratio
$10.39
+51.8%
Peer Median: 0.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for OPRT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | OPRT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -7.6x | 7.5x | 9.7x | -200.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 199.0x | 14.9x | 13.7x | 1231.5% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.3x | 0.5x | 0.8x | -34.1% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.57B | 7.5x | 19.2x | 0.5x | |
| $0.51B | 4.7x | -8.5x | 0.3x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 12.2x | 0.5x | |
| $0.26B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 123.2x | |
| $0.27B | 7.4x | 12.7x | 0.5x | |
| $0.30B | 0.0x | 199.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.22B | 6.0x | 4.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.21B | 12.2x | 18.7x | 0.5x | |
| $210.65B | 20.5x | 14.9x | 2.8x |