Complete DFDV Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
DFDV DCF Analysis
DFDV (DeFi Development Corp.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.2M | $2.0M | $2.1M | $2.2M | $2.3M | $2.4M | $2.4M | $2.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -6.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| EBIT | $-1.7M | $-3.4M | $-3.0M | $109.5K | $113.7K | $117.6K | $121.3K | $124.7K |
| EBIT Margin % | -80.0% | -170.0% | -143.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% |
| NOPAT | $-1.3M | $-2.6M | $-2.3M | $87.6K | $90.4K | $92.9K | $95.2K | $97.2K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -60.0% | -127.5% | -107.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $0 | $29.0K | $22.3K | $21.9K | $22.7K | $23.5K | $24.3K | $24.9K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $0 | $912 | $224.0K | $78.2K | $81.2K | $84.0K | $86.6K | $89.0K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-935.4K | $3.8M | $-1.9M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -43.5% | 189.5% | -92.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-354.9K | $-6.4M | $-115.9K | $143.9K | $148.8K | $153.4K | $157.5K | $161.3K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -1696.6% | 98.2% | 224.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -16.5% | -318.3% | -5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.920 | 0.846 | 0.778 | 0.715 | 0.658 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $132.3K | $125.9K | $119.3K | $112.7K | $106.2K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $132.3K | $258.2K | $377.5K | $490.2K | $596.4K |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 20.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | $13.9K |
| Market Cap | $213.6M |
| Total Capital | $213.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
| WACC | 8.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $161.3K |
| Terminal Value | $2.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.7M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $596.4K |
| Net Debt | $-2.5M |
| Equity Value | $4.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $3 |
| Current Share Price | $15 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -76.7% |
Valuation Summary
$3.43
Implied Price
$14.72
Current Price
-76.7%
Upside/Downside
8.7%
WACC
DFDV Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-16.13
-209.6%
Peer Median: 8.4x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 12.7x
P/S Ratio
$0.07
-99.5%
Peer Median: 0.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for DFDV's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | DFDV Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -7.6x | 8.4x | 9.8x | -191.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 12.7x | 11.9x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 101.7x | 0.5x | 0.7x | 20094.0% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.75B | 8.4x | 6.8x | 0.7x | |
| $0.72B | 12.2x | 6.6x | 0.6x | |
| $0.57B | 7.5x | 19.2x | 0.5x | |
| $0.51B | 4.7x | -8.5x | 0.3x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 12.2x | 0.5x | |
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 101.7x | |
| $0.27B | 7.4x | 12.7x | 0.5x | |
| $0.30B | 0.0x | 199.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.22B | 6.0x | 4.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.20B | 11.8x | 18.6x | 0.5x | |
| $211.42B | 20.6x | 15.0x | 2.8x |