Complete CPSS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
CPSS DCF Analysis
CPSS (Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $242.2M | $214.6M | $393.5M | $491.9M | $614.9M | $768.6M | $960.7M | $1.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -11.4% | 83.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.9% |
| EBIT | $1.6B | $61.1M | $27.4M | $196.8M | $245.9M | $307.4M | $384.3M | $476.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | 667.4% | 28.5% | 7.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 26.0% | 25.8% | 30.0% | 21.9% | 22.2% | 22.5% | 22.8% | 23.1% |
| NOPAT | $1.2B | $45.3M | $19.2M | $153.7M | $191.3M | $238.2M | $296.6M | $365.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 493.9% | 21.1% | 4.9% | 31.2% | 31.1% | 31.0% | 30.9% | 30.7% |
| Capex | $2.1M | $559.0K | $433.0K | $4.9M | $6.1M | $7.7M | $9.6M | $11.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $1.6M | $847.0K | $862.0K | $2.1M | $2.6M | $3.3M | $4.1M | $5.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Change in NWC | $32.1M | $47.5M | $-405.4M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 13.3% | 22.1% | -103.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.2B | $-1.8M | $425.0M | $150.8M | $187.8M | $233.8M | $291.1M | $359.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -100.2% | 23387.2% | -64.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 23.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 480.4% | -0.9% | 108.0% | 30.7% | 30.5% | 30.4% | 30.3% | 30.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.944 | 0.891 | 0.841 | 0.794 | 0.750 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $142.4M | $167.4M | $196.7M | $231.2M | $269.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $142.4M | $309.8M | $506.5M | $737.7M | $1.0B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 21.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.95 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.5% |
| Total Debt | $3.1B |
| Market Cap | $205.9M |
| Total Capital | $3.3B |
| Debt Weighting | 93.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 6.2% |
| WACC | 5.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $359.1M |
| Terminal Value | $10.7B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $8.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.0B |
| Net Debt | $3.1B |
| Equity Value | $5.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $245 |
| Current Share Price | $10 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +2461.0% |
Valuation Summary
$244.57
Implied Price
$9.55
Current Price
+2461.0%
Upside/Downside
5.9%
WACC
CPSS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Financial Services
P/E Ratio
$9.55
+0.0%
Peer Median: 12.0x
EV/EBITDA
$104.76
+997.0%
Peer Median: 12.7x
P/S Ratio
$9.18
-3.9%
Peer Median: 0.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CPSS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CPSS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.0x | 12.0x | 11.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.7x | 12.7x | 10.7x | 47.2% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 0.5x | 0.8x | 4.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 12.1x | 0.5x | |
| $0.20B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 96.8x | |
| $0.27B | 7.3x | 12.7x | 0.5x | |
| $0.29B | 0.0x | 198.2x | 0.3x | |
| $0.22B | 6.0x | 4.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.21B | 12.0x | 18.7x | 0.5x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 1.6x | 0.2x | |
| $206.99B | 20.2x | 14.7x | 2.7x |
CPSS Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.79 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $12.04 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$14.66
Intrinsic Value
$9.55
Current Price
+53.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.79 = 17.86
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
17.86 × 12.04 = 214.94
Step 3: Take square root
√214.94 = 14.66
Graham Number Result:
$14.66
CPSS Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$20.34
EPV per Share
$9.55
Current Price
+113.0%
Upside/Downside
3.9%
WACC: 3.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 3.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $20.34 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 6.9% |
| Debt Weight | 93.1% |
| WACC | 3.9% |