Complete NXPL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
NXPL DCF Analysis
NXPL (NextPlat Corp) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7M | $37.8M | $65.5M | $81.9M | $102.3M | $127.9M | $159.9M | $199.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 222.4% | 73.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-7.2M | $-9.3M | $-23.6M | $4.1M | $5.1M | $6.4M | $8.0M | $10.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | -61.5% | -24.7% | -36.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-5.4M | $-7.0M | $-17.7M | $3.1M | $3.8M | $4.8M | $6.0M | $7.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -46.1% | -18.5% | -27.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $715.6K | $647.0K | $189.0K | $1.9M | $2.3M | $2.7M | $3.2M | $3.8M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| Depreciation | $595.7K | $2.5M | $2.8M | $4.4M | $5.5M | $6.9M | $8.6M | $10.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Change in NWC | $2.5M | $10.3M | $-6.1M | $-3.8M | $-3.8M | $-3.8M | $-3.8M | $-3.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 21.6% | 27.2% | -9.4% | -4.7% | -3.7% | -3.0% | -2.4% | -1.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-8.1M | $-15.4M | $-9.0M | $9.4M | $10.9M | $12.8M | $15.2M | $18.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -91.3% | 41.9% | 204.7% | 16.1% | 17.5% | 18.8% | 20.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -68.7% | -40.8% | -13.7% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.926 | 0.858 | 0.795 | 0.737 | 0.683 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $8.7M | $9.3M | $10.2M | $11.2M | $12.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $8.7M | $18.0M | $28.2M | $39.4M | $51.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.89 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.3% |
| Total Debt | $2.3M |
| Market Cap | $16.6M |
| Total Capital | $18.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 12.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 88.0% |
| WACC | 7.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $18.2M |
| Terminal Value | $343.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $234.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $51.8M |
| Net Debt | $-17.7M |
| Equity Value | $304.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 20.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $15 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +2206.7% |
Valuation Summary
$14.76
Implied Price
$0.64
Current Price
+2206.7%
Upside/Downside
7.9%
WACC
NXPL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 4 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.5x
P/S Ratio
$1.38
+115.6%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NXPL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NXPL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | -Infinityx | 23.5x | 23.5x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.3x | 0.6x | 0.4x | -53.6% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 84.8x | |
| $0.43B | 0.0x | 23.5x | 0.6x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $8.32B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1794.6x |