Complete NCRA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
NCRA DCF Analysis
NCRA (Nocera, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.3M | $23.9M | $17.0M | $21.3M | $26.6M | $33.2M | $41.5M | $51.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 46.4% | -28.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-5.2M | $-2.0M | $-2.4M | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.7M | $2.1M | $2.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -31.7% | -8.5% | -14.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-3.9M | $-1.5M | $-1.8M | $797.5K | $996.9K | $1.2M | $1.6M | $1.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -23.8% | -6.4% | -10.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $0 | $857.9K | $956 | $463.4K | $550.3K | $653.5K | $776.1K | $921.6K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Depreciation | $71.8K | $187.6K | $142.8K | $146.3K | $182.8K | $228.5K | $285.7K | $357.1K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-2.6M | $-1.8M | $699.4K | $-234.2K | $-234.2K | $-234.2K | $-234.2K | $-234.2K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -15.8% | -7.4% | 4.1% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-1.2M | $-419.8K | $-2.4M | $714.5K | $863.5K | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 65.9% | -460.5% | 130.4% | 20.9% | 22.2% | 23.3% | 24.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -7.5% | -1.8% | -13.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.930 | 0.866 | 0.805 | 0.749 | 0.697 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $664.7K | $747.5K | $849.8K | $975.0K | $1.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $664.7K | $1.4M | $2.3M | $3.2M | $4.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.72 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.5% |
| Total Debt | $30.4K |
| Market Cap | $14.8M |
| Total Capital | $14.8M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.8% |
| WACC | 7.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.6M |
| Terminal Value | $33.2M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $23.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $4.4M |
| Net Debt | $-453.7K |
| Equity Value | $28.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 13.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +105.1% |
Valuation Summary
$2.11
Implied Price
$1.03
Current Price
+105.1%
Upside/Downside
7.5%
WACC
NCRA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Consumer Defensive
P/E Ratio
$-8.25
-901.4%
Peer Median: 62.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 27.1x
P/S Ratio
$1.51
+46.4%
Peer Median: 1.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NCRA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NCRA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -7.8x | 62.2x | 62.2x | -112.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 27.1x | 18.5x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.9x | 1.3x | 1.2x | -31.7% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 10.0x | 0.1x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.1x | |
| $0.07B | 1772.2x | 625.9x | 2.6x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.3x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |