Complete SGBX Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SGBX DCF Analysis
SGBX (Safe & Green Holdings Corp.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.4M | $16.5M | $5.0M | $4.5M | $4.0M | $3.7M | $3.4M | $3.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -32.3% | -69.9% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -9.0% | -8.1% | -7.3% |
| EBIT | $-7.2M | $-24.8M | $-9.7M | $223.9K | $201.6K | $183.4K | $168.5K | $156.2K |
| EBIT Margin % | -29.6% | -149.9% | -195.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-5.4M | $-18.6M | $-7.3M | $168.0K | $151.2K | $137.6K | $126.4K | $117.2K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -22.2% | -112.4% | -146.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $2.8M | $701.4K | $90.4K | $432.3K | $369.6K | $319.5K | $278.9K | $245.7K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 11.6% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% |
| Depreciation | $574.4K | $3.0M | $1.5M | $755.1K | $679.6K | $618.4K | $568.3K | $526.8K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.4% | 18.1% | 30.1% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-7.1M | $-14.4M | $2.6M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -29.3% | -87.1% | 51.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-527.9K | $-1.9M | $-8.4M | $490.8K | $461.1K | $436.4K | $415.8K | $398.4K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -259.9% | -343.7% | 105.8% | -6.0% | -5.4% | -4.7% | -4.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -2.2% | -11.5% | -169.4% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.913 | 0.834 | 0.761 | 0.695 | 0.634 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $448.1K | $384.4K | $332.1K | $288.8K | $252.7K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $448.1K | $832.4K | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.18 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.8% |
| Total Debt | $6.9M |
| Market Cap | $6.5M |
| Total Capital | $13.4M |
| Debt Weighting | 51.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 48.5% |
| WACC | 9.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $398.4K |
| Terminal Value | $5.8M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $3.7M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.7M |
| Net Debt | $6.5M |
| Equity Value | $-1.1M |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $-1 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -181.7% |
Valuation Summary
$-0.52
Implied Price
$0.64
Current Price
-181.7%
Upside/Downside
9.5%
WACC
SGBX Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-655.63
-102542.2%
Peer Median: 62.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 27.1x
P/S Ratio
$0.64
+0.0%
Peer Median: 1.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SGBX's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SGBX Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.1x | 62.2x | 62.2x | -100.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 27.1x | 27.1x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.1x | |
| $0.07B | 1772.2x | 625.9x | 2.6x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.3x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |