Complete HOOK Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
HOOK DCF Analysis
HOOK (HOOKIPA Pharma Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.2M | $20.1M | $43.9M | $54.9M | $68.7M | $85.8M | $107.3M | $134.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 41.3% | 118.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-73.2M | $-97.7M | $-51.5M | $2.7M | $3.4M | $4.3M | $5.4M | $6.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | -513.4% | -485.3% | -117.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-54.9M | $-73.3M | $-38.6M | $2.1M | $2.6M | $3.2M | $4.0M | $5.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -385.1% | -364.0% | -87.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $5.0M | $4.2M | $194.0K | $3.4M | $4.1M | $4.9M | $5.8M | $6.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 35.2% | 20.7% | 0.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| Depreciation | $3.6M | $3.6M | $2.8M | $9.0M | $11.3M | $14.1M | $17.6M | $22.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 25.3% | 17.6% | 6.3% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| Change in NWC | $37.1M | $-6.4M | $-49.1M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 260.2% | -32.0% | -111.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-93.4M | $-67.4M | $13.1M | $7.6M | $9.7M | $12.4M | $15.8M | $20.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 27.8% | 119.4% | -41.8% | 27.8% | 27.6% | 27.4% | 27.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -655.2% | -335.0% | 29.8% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 15.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.851 | 0.784 | 0.723 | 0.667 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $7.0M | $8.3M | $9.8M | $11.5M | $13.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $7.0M | $15.3M | $25.1M | $36.5M | $50.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.95 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | $875.0K |
| Market Cap | $19.5M |
| Total Capital | $20.4M |
| Debt Weighting | 4.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.7% |
| WACC | 8.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $20.2M |
| Terminal Value | $348.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $232.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $50.0M |
| Net Debt | $-38.8M |
| Equity Value | $321.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $26 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1501.5% |
Valuation Summary
$25.62
Implied Price
$1.60
Current Price
+1501.5%
Upside/Downside
8.4%
WACC
HOOK Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-338.26
-21241.4%
Peer Median: 55.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$1.60
+0.0%
Peer Median: 2.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for HOOK's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | HOOK Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.3x | 55.6x | 27.9x | -100.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | -Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.7x | 2.7x | 4.6x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.02B | 0.1x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 48.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.0x | |
| $0.02B | 55.6x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.7x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 46.2x |