Complete LCID Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
LCID DCF Analysis
LCID (Lucid Group, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $608.2M | $595.3M | $807.8M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -2.1% | 35.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-2.6B | $-3.1B | $-3.0B | $50.5M | $63.1M | $78.9M | $98.6M | $123.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -426.5% | -520.7% | -373.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-1.9B | $-2.3B | $-2.3B | $37.9M | $47.3M | $59.2M | $74.0M | $92.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -319.9% | -390.5% | -280.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $1.1B | $910.6M | $883.8M | $30.3M | $37.9M | $47.3M | $59.2M | $74.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 176.7% | 153.0% | 109.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $186.6M | $233.5M | $295.3M | $358.4M | $448.0M | $560.0M | $699.9M | $874.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 30.7% | 39.2% | 36.6% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 35.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-2.1B | $-225.7M | $-40.1M | $-25.1M | $-25.1M | $-25.1M | $-25.1M | $-25.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -351.3% | -37.9% | -5.0% | -2.5% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-697.4M | $-2.8B | $-2.8B | $391.0M | $482.5M | $596.9M | $739.8M | $918.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -298.1% | -1.4% | 113.9% | 23.4% | 23.7% | 24.0% | 24.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -114.7% | -466.4% | -348.3% | 38.7% | 38.2% | 37.8% | 37.5% | 37.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.808 | 0.753 | 0.702 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $364.2M | $418.7M | $482.5M | $557.1M | $644.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $364.2M | $783.0M | $1.3B | $1.8B | $2.5B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.89 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.3% |
| Total Debt | $2.5B |
| Market Cap | $6.8B |
| Total Capital | $9.3B |
| Debt Weighting | 26.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 73.4% |
| WACC | 7.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $918.5M |
| Terminal Value | $19.4B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $13.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $2.5B |
| Net Debt | $870.0M |
| Equity Value | $15.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 2445.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $6 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +177.9% |
Valuation Summary
$6.23
Implied Price
$2.24
Current Price
+177.9%
Upside/Downside
7.3%
WACC
LCID Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-6.78
-402.9%
Peer Median: 8.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 13.6x
P/S Ratio
$0.25
-88.7%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LCID's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LCID Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -2.8x | 8.6x | 11.2x | -133.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 13.6x | 12.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 7.9x | 0.9x | 3.1x | 784.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1129.77B | 192.9x | 80.7x | 11.8x | |
| $47.88B | 8.6x | 7.3x | 0.3x | |
| $40.76B | 8.3x | 13.6x | 0.2x | |
| $16.55B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.3x | |
| $6.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.9x | |
| $4.34B | 21.4x | 8.2x | 0.5x | |
| $0.46B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 791.9x | |
| $0.96B | 6.6x | 18.9x | 0.3x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 132.2x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x |