Complete CENN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
CENN DCF Analysis
CENN (Cenntro Electric Group Limited) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.9M | $10.4M | $31.3M | $39.1M | $48.9M | $61.1M | $76.4M | $95.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 16.6% | 200.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-55.2M | $-50.3M | $-31.8M | $2.0M | $2.4M | $3.1M | $3.8M | $4.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | -617.7% | -482.3% | -101.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-41.4M | $-37.7M | $-23.9M | $1.5M | $1.8M | $2.3M | $2.9M | $3.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -463.2% | -361.7% | -76.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $19.7M | $8.8M | $846.1K | $1.7M | $2.0M | $2.4M | $2.8M | $3.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 220.8% | 83.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Depreciation | $2.6M | $6.2M | $6.6M | $14.2M | $17.8M | $22.2M | $27.8M | $34.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 28.7% | 59.1% | 21.2% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-121.9M | $-57.1M | $-38.8M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -1363.4% | -548.0% | -124.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $63.3M | $16.8M | $20.7M | $14.0M | $17.6M | $22.2M | $27.8M | $35.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -73.4% | 23.2% | -32.5% | 25.8% | 25.7% | 25.7% | 25.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 708.1% | 161.5% | 66.3% | 35.8% | 36.0% | 36.2% | 36.4% | 36.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.905 | 0.819 | 0.741 | 0.671 | 0.607 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $12.7M | $14.4M | $16.4M | $18.7M | $21.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $12.7M | $27.1M | $43.5M | $62.2M | $83.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.29 |
| Cost of Equity | 14.3% |
| Total Debt | $22.3M |
| Market Cap | $29.0M |
| Total Capital | $51.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 43.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 56.5% |
| WACC | 10.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $35.0M |
| Terminal Value | $448.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $272.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $83.4M |
| Net Debt | $9.8M |
| Equity Value | $345.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $11 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1092.4% |
Valuation Summary
$11.21
Implied Price
$0.94
Current Price
+1092.4%
Upside/Downside
10.5%
WACC
CENN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-8.83
-1039.9%
Peer Median: 6.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 18.5x
P/S Ratio
$0.56
-40.8%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CENN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CENN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.7x | 6.6x | 6.6x | -110.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 18.5x | 16.4x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.0x | 0.6x | 2.0x | 68.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.49B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 847.0x | |
| $0.93B | 6.6x | 18.5x | 0.3x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 144.8x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.6x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 14.3x | 0.5x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.6x | |
| $977.17B | 166.9x | 69.8x | 10.2x |