Complete F Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
F DCF Analysis
F (Ford Motor Company) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $158.1B | $176.2B | $185.0B | $202.3B | $219.3B | $235.9B | $252.0B | $267.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 11.5% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% |
| EBIT | $12.4B | $5.5B | $5.2B | $10.1B | $11.0B | $11.8B | $12.6B | $13.4B |
| EBIT Margin % | 7.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 0.0% | 18.5% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| NOPAT | $9.3B | $5.5B | $4.3B | $8.7B | $9.3B | $9.9B | $10.4B | $10.9B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Capex | $6.9B | $8.2B | $8.7B | $9.2B | $9.5B | $9.7B | $9.9B | $9.9B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| Depreciation | $6.5B | $6.5B | $5.9B | $7.4B | $8.0B | $8.6B | $9.2B | $9.8B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Change in NWC | $1.3B | $340.0M | $-2.3B | $-470.0M | $-407.7M | $-350.8M | $-299.8M | $-254.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.8% | 0.2% | -1.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $7.6B | $3.4B | $3.8B | $7.4B | $8.3B | $9.2B | $10.1B | $11.0B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -55.1% | 10.7% | 95.7% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 4.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.944 | 0.890 | 0.840 | 0.792 | 0.748 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $7.0B | $7.4B | $7.7B | $8.0B | $8.3B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $7.0B | $14.3B | $22.1B | $30.1B | $38.3B |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.4% |
| Tax Rate | 13.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.55 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.1% |
| Total Debt | $160.9B |
| Market Cap | $40.8B |
| Total Capital | $201.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 79.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 20.2% |
| WACC | 6.0% |
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $11.0B |
| Terminal Value | $324.7B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $242.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $38.3B |
| Net Debt | $137.9B |
| Equity Value | $143.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 4021.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $36 |
| Current Share Price | $10 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +241.1% |
F Dividend Discount Model
F dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
Historical 5Y CAGR: 35.7%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $0.75Current | $0.12 | +19.0% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $0.63 | $0.47 | -42.7% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $1.10 | $0.80 | +266.7% | TTM Historical |
2022Q2 2021 - Q2 2022 | $0.30 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
F Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
| Multiple | F Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.3x | 8.6x | 11.2x | -2.9% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6x | 13.6x | 12.0x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.2x | 0.9x | 3.1x | -74.9% | Undervalued |
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1129.77B | 192.9x | 80.7x | 11.8x | |
| $47.88B | 8.6x | 7.3x | 0.3x | |
| $40.76B | 8.3x | 13.6x | 0.2x | |
| $16.55B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.3x | |
| $6.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.9x | |
| $4.34B | 21.4x | 8.2x | 0.5x | |
| $0.46B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 791.9x | |
| $0.96B | 6.6x | 18.9x | 0.3x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 132.2x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.9x |
F Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
| EPS (TTM) | $1.25 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $11.15 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
F Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 5.9 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 5.9 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $5.9B |
| Cost of Capital | 4.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $125.9B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $125.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 4.0B |
| EPV per Share | $31.30 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 20.7% |
| Debt Weight | 79.3% |
| WACC | 4.7% |