Complete KPTI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
KPTI DCF Analysis
KPTI (Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $157.1M | $146.0M | $145.2M | $148.2M | $151.0M | $153.5M | $155.8M | $157.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -7.0% | -0.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| EBIT | $-142.2M | $-129.5M | $-119.4M | $7.4M | $7.5M | $7.7M | $7.8M | $7.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -90.5% | -88.7% | -82.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-106.7M | $-97.2M | $-89.6M | $5.6M | $5.7M | $5.8M | $5.8M | $5.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -67.9% | -66.5% | -61.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $118.0K | $0 | $142.0K | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $621.0K | $530.0K | $-2.2M | $-361.5K | $-368.2K | $-374.4K | $-380.0K | $-385.1K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.4% | 0.4% | -1.5% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Change in NWC | $76.5M | $-96.4M | $-100.2M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 48.7% | -66.0% | -69.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-182.6M | $-225.0K | $8.3M | $3.7M | $3.8M | $3.8M | $3.9M | $4.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 99.9% | 3800.3% | -55.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -116.3% | -0.2% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.950 | 0.903 | 0.859 | 0.816 | 0.776 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $3.5M | $3.4M | $3.3M | $3.2M | $3.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $3.5M | $6.9M | $10.3M | $13.4M | $16.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.23 |
| Cost of Equity | 5.4% |
| Total Debt | $194.5M |
| Market Cap | $39.7M |
| Total Capital | $234.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 83.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 17.0% |
| WACC | 5.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $4.0M |
| Terminal Value | $149.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $116.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $16.5M |
| Net Debt | $132.0M |
| Equity Value | $475.4K |
| Shares Outstanding | 62.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $0 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -99.8% |
Valuation Summary
$0.01
Implied Price
$4.60
Current Price
-99.8%
Upside/Downside
5.2%
WACC
KPTI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-0.51
-111.0%
Peer Median: 0.5x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$68.88
+1397.4%
Peer Median: 4.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for KPTI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | KPTI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.6x | 0.5x | 0.5x | -1008.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.3x | 4.2x | 2.6x | -93.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 5.9x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 57.6x | 0.1x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.04B | 0.5x | 0.0x | 100.9x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.2x |