Complete SPRO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SPRO DCF Analysis
SPRO (Spero Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.6M | $96.7M | $27.4M | $34.2M | $42.8M | $53.5M | $66.9M | $83.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 99.1% | -71.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-42.2M | $21.5M | $-73.4M | $1.7M | $2.1M | $2.7M | $3.3M | $4.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -86.9% | 22.2% | -267.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 10.2% | 25.0% | 22.0% | 22.3% | 22.6% | 22.9% | 23.2% |
| NOPAT | $-31.6M | $19.3M | $-55.0M | $1.3M | $1.7M | $2.1M | $2.6M | $3.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -65.1% | 19.9% | -200.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $0 | $0 | $0 | $342.4K | $428.1K | $535.1K | $668.8K | $836.1K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $869.0K | $367.0K | $2.0K | $248.3K | $310.4K | $388.0K | $485.0K | $606.3K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-51.7M | $6.6M | $-35.9M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -106.5% | 6.8% | -130.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $21.0M | $13.1M | $-19.2M | $73.0K | $376.8K | $755.0K | $1.2M | $1.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -37.7% | -246.8% | 100.4% | 416.4% | 100.4% | 62.4% | 47.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 43.2% | 13.5% | -70.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.949 | 0.900 | 0.854 | 0.811 | 0.769 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $69.2K | $339.3K | $645.1K | $993.8K | $1.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $69.2K | $408.5K | $1.1M | $2.0M | $3.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 22.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.23 |
| Cost of Equity | 5.4% |
| Total Debt | $4.3M |
| Market Cap | $151.0M |
| Total Capital | $155.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 2.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 97.2% |
| WACC | 5.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.8M |
| Terminal Value | $64.3M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $49.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $3.4M |
| Net Debt | $-48.6M |
| Equity Value | $101.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 54.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -30.4% |
Valuation Summary
$1.88
Implied Price
$2.70
Current Price
-30.4%
Upside/Downside
5.4%
WACC
SPRO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-0.54
-120.0%
Peer Median: 0.5x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$2.70
+0.0%
Peer Median: 4.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SPRO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SPRO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -2.7x | 0.5x | 0.5x | -599.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.3x | 4.3x | 2.3x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.05B | 0.5x | 0.0x | 107.8x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.3x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1244.2x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x |