Complete HCWB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
HCWB DCF Analysis
HCWB (HCW Biologics Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.7M | $2.8M | $2.6M | $2.3M | $2.1M | $1.9M | $1.7M | $1.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -57.7% | -9.7% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-15.1M | $-25.7M | $-29.5M | $115.5K | $104.0K | $93.6K | $84.2K | $75.8K |
| EBIT Margin % | -224.3% | -905.0% | -1148.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-11.3M | $-19.3M | $-22.1M | $86.6K | $78.0K | $70.2K | $63.2K | $56.8K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -168.2% | -678.7% | -861.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $10.3M | $6.2M | $261.6K | $170.3K | $145.6K | $124.5K | $106.5K | $91.0K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 152.9% | 218.3% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Depreciation | $717.9K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $745.1K | $670.6K | $603.6K | $543.2K | $488.9K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 10.7% | 39.9% | 46.1% | 32.3% | 32.3% | 32.3% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-7.0M | $-33.5M | $-21.6M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -104.8% | -1177.4% | -841.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-13.8M | $9.1M | $400.0K | $661.5K | $603.0K | $549.2K | $499.9K | $454.7K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 165.9% | -95.6% | 65.4% | -8.8% | -8.9% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -205.6% | 320.3% | 15.6% | 28.6% | 29.0% | 29.4% | 29.7% | 30.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.937 | 0.877 | 0.822 | 0.770 | 0.721 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $619.6K | $529.1K | $451.4K | $384.9K | $327.9K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $619.6K | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.0M | $2.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.83 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.1% |
| Total Debt | $13.7M |
| Market Cap | $15.9M |
| Total Capital | $29.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 46.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 53.8% |
| WACC | 6.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $454.7K |
| Terminal Value | $11.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $7.9M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $2.3M |
| Net Debt | $9.0M |
| Equity Value | $1.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 38.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $0 |
| Current Share Price | $7 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -99.5% |
Valuation Summary
$0.03
Implied Price
$6.60
Current Price
-99.5%
Upside/Downside
6.8%
WACC
HCWB Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-30.82
-566.9%
Peer Median: 55.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$1.71
-74.1%
Peer Median: 2.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for HCWB's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | HCWB Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -11.9x | 55.6x | 55.6x | -121.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 11.0x | 2.9x | 4.3x | 286.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.02B | 55.6x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.7x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 46.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.9x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x |