Complete H Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 7 different methodologies
H DCF Analysis
H (Hyatt Hotels Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.9B | $6.7B | $6.6B | $8.3B | $10.4B | $12.7B | $15.2B | $17.9B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 13.2% | -0.3% | 25.0% | 24.7% | 22.2% | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| EBIT | $363.0M | $322.0M | $2.7B | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $2.7B | $3.2B |
| EBIT Margin % | 6.2% | 4.8% | 41.3% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 17.6% | 17.7% | 17.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 0.0% | 29.0% | 17.1% | 24.2% | 24.3% | 24.4% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| NOPAT | $363.0M | $228.5M | $2.3B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.4B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 6.2% | 3.4% | 34.3% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 13.5% |
| Capex | $201.0M | $198.0M | $170.0M | $307.6M | $364.3M | $422.9M | $482.1M | $540.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $461.0M | $439.0M | $333.0M | $537.9M | $670.6M | $819.4M | $983.1M | $1.2B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-867.0M | $-411.0M | $907.0M | $-256.1M | $-255.5M | $-249.7M | $-239.7M | $-226.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -14.7% | -6.2% | 13.6% | -3.1% | -2.5% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.5B | $880.5M | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.8B | $3.3B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -40.9% | 74.3% | 3.3% | 22.3% | 20.5% | 18.9% | 17.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 25.3% | 13.2% | 23.1% | 19.1% | 18.7% | 18.4% | 18.3% | 18.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.919 | 0.844 | 0.775 | 0.712 | 0.654 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.1B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.5B | $3.1B | $4.9B | $6.9B | $9.0B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Tax Rate | 24.2% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.37 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.4% |
| Total Debt | $4.1B |
| Market Cap | $12.7B |
| Total Capital | $16.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 24.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 75.8% |
| WACC | 8.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $3.3B |
| Terminal Value | $52.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $34.3B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $9.0B |
| Net Debt | $3.0B |
| Equity Value | $40.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 102.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $393 |
| Current Share Price | $133 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +194.8% |
Valuation Summary
$393.12
Implied Price
$133.37
Current Price
+194.8%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC
H Dividend Discount Model
H dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
DDM Method Selection
Model Assumptions
Historical 5Y CAGR: 100.0%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
Valuation Result
$0.00
Intrinsic Value
$133.37
Current Price
-100.0%
Upside/Downside
Medium Confidence
Dividend History & Growth Analysis
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $0.60Current | $0.00 | +0.0% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $0.60 | $0.45 | +300.0% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $0.15 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Analysis
Average Growth Rate: +150.0%
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
Error in calculation
Substitution:
Required return must be greater than growth rate for Gordon Growth Model
Result:
$0.00
H Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$159.34
+19.5%
Peer Median: 19.7x
EV/EBITDA
$165.11
+23.8%
Peer Median: 14.2x
P/S Ratio
$259.51
+94.6%
Peer Median: 3.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for H's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | H Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.5x | 19.7x | 21.7x | -16.3% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.2x | 14.2x | 15.6x | 0.1% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 1.9x | 3.7x | 3.2x | -48.6% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $72.50B | 22.7x | 14.7x | 4.3x | |
| $59.74B | 38.9x | 27.6x | 5.3x | |
| $31.06B | 15.3x | 9.3x | 1.2x | |
| $20.51B | 18.6x | 8.6x | 1.5x | |
| $20.56B | 131.5x | 24.4x | 3.9x | |
| $12.73B | 16.5x | 14.2x | 1.9x | |
| $8.16B | 9.5x | 10.7x | 0.9x | |
| $6.43B | 19.7x | 14.2x | 4.5x | |
| $5.93B | 19.2x | 14.2x | 3.7x | |
| $3.56B | 23.3x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $178.35B | 33.3x | 20.2x | 7.4x |
H Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $8.10 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $34.63 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$79.43
Intrinsic Value
$133.37
Current Price
-40.4%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 8.10 = 182.18
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
182.18 × 34.63 = 6308.89
Step 3: Take square root
√6308.89 = 79.43
Graham Number Result:
$79.43
H Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
8.10 × (8.5 + 2 × 12.2%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$8.10
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 5Y12.2%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$265.66
Intrinsic Value
$133.37
Current Price
+99.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 12.2%
H Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$8.10
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 5Y12.2%
5-year earnings growth
12.2%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$8.10 × 12.2% = $98.42
$98.42
Fair Value
$133.37
Current Price
-26.2%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
16.5x
Current P/E
12.2%
Growth Rate
1.36
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Fairly Valued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
H Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.3 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.3 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$159.97
EPV per Share
$133.37
Current Price
+19.9%
Upside/Downside
7.9%
WACC: 7.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.3B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $16.4B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $16.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $159.97 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 77.1% |
| Debt Weight | 22.9% |
| WACC | 7.9% |