Complete GOVX Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
GOVX DCF Analysis
GOVX (GeoVax Labs, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $81.0K | $0 | $4.0M | $3.6M | $3.2M | $2.9M | $2.6M | $2.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -100.0% | Infinity% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-14.0M | $-26.7M | $-25.1M | $178.0K | $160.2K | $144.1K | $129.7K | $116.8K |
| EBIT Margin % | -17319.8% | 0.0% | -635.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-10.5M | $-20.1M | $-18.9M | $133.5K | $120.1K | $108.1K | $97.3K | $87.6K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -12989.8% | -Infinity% | -476.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $134.3K | $48.9K | $0 | $249.1K | $213.0K | $182.1K | $155.7K | $133.1K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 165.8% | Infinity% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% |
| Depreciation | $56.3K | $74.2K | $95.4K | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| D&A / Revenue % | 69.5% | Infinity% | 2.4% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Change in NWC | $18.0M | $-19.8M | $461.7K | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 22219.1% | -Infinity% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-28.6M | $-206.7K | $-19.2M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 99.3% | -9199.1% | Infinity% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -35305.2% | -Infinity% | -486.1% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.830 | 0.689 | 0.571 | 0.474 | 0.393 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 3.71 |
| Cost of Equity | 20.5% |
| Total Debt | $0 |
| Market Cap | $15.9M |
| Total Capital | $15.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
| WACC | 20.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $InfinityB |
| Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| PV of Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $InfinityB |
| Net Debt | $-5.5M |
| Equity Value | $InfinityB |
| Shares Outstanding | 5.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $InfinityB |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +Infinity% |
Valuation Summary
$Infinity
Implied Price
$1.05
Current Price
+Infinity%
Upside/Downside
20.5%
WACC
GOVX Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$1.05
+0.0%
Peer Median: 2.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GOVX's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GOVX Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.5x | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.9x | 2.9x | 5.5x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.7x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 46.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.9x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.8x |