Complete GTEC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
GTEC DCF Analysis
GTEC (Greenland Technologies Holding Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $90.8M | $90.3M | $83.9M | $84.1M | $84.2M | $84.3M | $84.4M | $84.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -0.5% | -7.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| EBIT | $6.0M | $10.8M | $12.6M | $9.4M | $9.5M | $9.6M | $9.7M | $9.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | 6.6% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 9.6% | 25.0% | 9.1% | 18.0% | 18.7% | 19.4% | 20.1% | 20.8% |
| NOPAT | $5.4M | $8.1M | $11.5M | $7.7M | $7.7M | $7.7M | $7.7M | $7.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 5.9% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Capex | $525.1K | $735.5K | $0 | $840.9K | $842.1K | $843.3K | $844.3K | $845.2K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $2.4M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Change in NWC | $12.3M | $-38.9M | $7.8M | $3.9M | $3.1M | $2.5M | $2.0M | $1.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 13.6% | -43.1% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-5.0M | $48.4M | $5.9M | $5.1M | $5.9M | $6.5M | $7.1M | $7.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 1066.0% | -87.9% | -12.7% | 15.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -5.5% | 53.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.907 | 0.822 | 0.745 | 0.675 | 0.612 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $4.6M | $4.9M | $4.9M | $4.8M | $4.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $4.6M | $9.5M | $14.4M | $19.1M | $23.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 18.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.01 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.0% |
| Total Debt | $21.4M |
| Market Cap | $33.6M |
| Total Capital | $54.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 38.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 61.1% |
| WACC | 10.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $7.5M |
| Terminal Value | $98.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $60.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $23.7M |
| Net Debt | $14.7M |
| Equity Value | $69.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 13.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +163.2% |
Valuation Summary
$5.08
Implied Price
$1.93
Current Price
+163.2%
Upside/Downside
10.3%
WACC
GTEC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$31.01
+1507.6%
Peer Median: 27.1x
EV/EBITDA
$18.47
+857.5%
Peer Median: 18.7x
P/S Ratio
$21.62
+1020.6%
Peer Median: 4.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GTEC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GTEC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.7x | 27.1x | 27.2x | -93.8% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.8x | 18.7x | 20.9x | -85.0% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.4x | 4.5x | 6.0x | -91.1% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 54.0x | 1.1x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 13.2x | |
| $0.03B | 1.7x | 2.8x | 0.4x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 52.7x | 41.2x | 2.7x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.0x | |
| $89.79B | 27.1x | 18.7x | 4.5x |
GTEC Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.15 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $4.43 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$10.68
Intrinsic Value
$1.93
Current Price
+453.7%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.15 = 25.77
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
25.77 × 4.43 = 114.12
Step 3: Take square root
√114.12 = 10.68
Graham Number Result:
$10.68
GTEC Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.15 × (8.5 + 2 × 21.1%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.15
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y21.1%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y13.0%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$58.06
Intrinsic Value
$1.93
Current Price
+2909.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 21.1%
GTEC Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.15
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y21.1%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y13.0%
5-year earnings growth
21.1%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.15 × 21.1% = $24.16
$24.16
Fair Value
$1.93
Current Price
+1152.4%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
1.7x
Current P/E
21.1%
Growth Rate
0.08
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
GTEC Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$15.70
EPV per Share
$1.93
Current Price
+713.8%
Upside/Downside
6.6%
WACC: 6.6% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 6.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $15.70 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 55.1% |
| Debt Weight | 44.9% |
| WACC | 6.6% |