Complete NEPH Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
NEPH DCF Analysis
NEPH (Nephros, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.0M | $14.2M | $14.2M | $16.2M | $18.2M | $20.3M | $22.4M | $24.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 42.7% | -0.5% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.2% |
| EBIT | $-4.3M | $-1.6M | $6.0K | $807.7K | $910.0K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -43.5% | -11.2% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 16.9% | 23.4% | 23.5% | 23.7% | 23.9% | 24.0% |
| NOPAT | $-3.3M | $-1.2M | $5.0K | $618.9K | $695.8K | $773.5K | $851.0K | $927.5K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -32.6% | -8.4% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $137.0K | $75.0K | $55.0K | $175.5K | $187.9K | $202.7K | $223.5K | $244.2K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $351.0K | $214.0K | $137.0K | $322.5K | $363.3K | $404.7K | $446.3K | $487.4K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-4.4M | $-557.0K | $444.0K | $-41.8K | $-37.7K | $-33.6K | $-29.6K | $-25.9K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -44.1% | -3.9% | 3.1% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.4M | $-498.8K | $-357.0K | $807.8K | $909.0K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -136.7% | 28.4% | 326.3% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 13.6% | -3.5% | -2.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.851 | 0.785 | 0.724 | 0.668 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $745.1K | $773.5K | $792.0K | $798.8K | $799.2K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $745.1K | $1.5M | $2.3M | $3.1M | $3.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 23.4% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.96 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.5% |
| Total Debt | $1.4M |
| Market Cap | $42.2M |
| Total Capital | $43.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 3.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.8% |
| WACC | 8.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.2M |
| Terminal Value | $20.8M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $13.9M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $3.9M |
| Net Debt | $-2.3M |
| Equity Value | $20.1M |
| Shares Outstanding | 10.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $4 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -52.3% |
Valuation Summary
$1.90
Implied Price
$3.98
Current Price
-52.3%
Upside/Downside
8.4%
WACC
NEPH Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$2.04
-48.7%
Peer Median: 27.1x
EV/EBITDA
$1.71
-57.1%
Peer Median: 18.7x
P/S Ratio
$14.58
+266.3%
Peer Median: 10.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NEPH's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NEPH Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.7x | 27.1x | 27.2x | 94.8% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.2x | 18.7x | 20.9x | 120.4% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.7x | 10.0x | 6.8x | -72.7% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 13.2x | |
| $0.03B | 1.7x | 2.8x | 0.4x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 52.7x | 41.2x | 2.7x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.0x | |
| $89.79B | 27.1x | 18.7x | 4.5x |
NEPH Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.08 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $0.81 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$1.17
Intrinsic Value
$3.98
Current Price
-70.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.08 = 1.70
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
1.70 × 0.81 = 1.37
Step 3: Take square root
√1.37 = 1.17
Graham Number Result:
$1.17
NEPH Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.08 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.08
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$1.85
Intrinsic Value
$3.98
Current Price
-53.6%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
NEPH Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.08
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.08 × 10.0% = $0.75
$0.75
Fair Value
$3.98
Current Price
-81.0%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
52.7x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
5.27
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).