Complete TPCS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TPCS DCF Analysis
TPCS (TechPrecision Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.3M | $31.4M | $31.6M | $38.2M | $45.3M | $53.0M | $61.0M | $69.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 41.1% | 0.5% | 20.8% | 18.8% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 13.7% |
| EBIT | $-1.6M | $-1.1M | $-4.6M | $1.9M | $2.3M | $2.6M | $3.1M | $3.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | -7.0% | -3.4% | -14.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.9% | 24.9% | 24.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-1.2M | $-798.3K | $-3.5M | $1.4M | $1.7M | $2.0M | $2.3M | $2.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -5.3% | -2.5% | -11.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $939.0K | $2.3M | $3.2M | $2.0M | $2.2M | $2.5M | $2.7M | $2.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.2% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| Depreciation | $1.5M | $2.2M | $2.4M | $2.7M | $3.2M | $3.8M | $4.3M | $4.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-2.4M | $2.8M | $-8.5M | $815.1K | $774.4K | $724.1K | $667.3K | $606.8K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -11.0% | 8.9% | -26.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.8M | $-3.7M | $4.2M | $1.3M | $1.9M | $2.5M | $3.2M | $4.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -306.4% | 212.8% | -68.0% | 42.0% | 33.3% | 27.4% | 23.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 8.1% | -11.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.950 | 0.902 | 0.856 | 0.813 | 0.772 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.3M | $1.7M | $2.2M | $2.6M | $3.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.3M | $3.0M | $5.2M | $7.8M | $10.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 24.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.26% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.23 |
| Cost of Equity | 5.3% |
| Total Debt | $12.7M |
| Market Cap | $33.2M |
| Total Capital | $45.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 27.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 72.3% |
| WACC | 5.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $4.0M |
| Terminal Value | $145.3M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $112.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $10.9M |
| Net Debt | $12.6M |
| Equity Value | $110.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $13 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +272.8% |
Valuation Summary
$12.68
Implied Price
$3.40
Current Price
+272.8%
Upside/Downside
5.3%
WACC
TPCS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-22.29
-755.5%
Peer Median: 26.8x
EV/EBITDA
$1.25
-63.1%
Peer Median: 12.9x
P/S Ratio
$15.28
+349.3%
Peer Median: 4.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TPCS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TPCS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.1x | 26.8x | 14.3x | -115.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.1x | 12.9x | 11.4x | 273.8% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.0x | 4.5x | 4.9x | -77.7% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 12.9x | 0.6x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 88.4x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 54.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.3x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 12.8x | |
| $0.03B | 1.8x | 2.9x | 0.4x | |
| $88.95B | 26.8x | 18.5x | 4.5x |